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Why Trump, Iran seem light-years apart on any possible deal to end the war
The fog of war usually refers to maddening confusion about what is happening on the battlefield.
But right now we have the fog of peace talks: Are they real, are they going anywhere, and which side is telling the truth?
It’s clear that President Trump, insisting he can end the war with Iran whenever he wants, is looking for an exit ramp to declare victory and get out.
WINNING THE BATTLES, LOSING THE WAR? AMERICA MUST DEFINE THE ENDGAME IN IRAN
It’s just as clear that the theocratic dictatorship–at least the leaders who survived the attacks that killed the ayatollah and many others–are digging in their heels. They will claim victory just for surviving the military onslaught that has decimated their navy and air force.
When Trump said there were back-channel talks–granting a five-day delay on threats to obliterate its energy facilities–the Iranians flatly denied it. Some prominent pundits doubted Trump. But then Tehran said yeah, well, there have been some secret contacts.
Now we have starkly different accounts of what’s going down.
Trump says the talks have been “very good.” The other day, in fact, he depicted the mullahs as making a major concession.
The Iranians have given the U.S. “a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money,” Trump said. He was cagey about it, but revealed under questioning by CBS’s Ed O’Keefe that it involved the flow of oil and the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari taunted the administration in a video: “Has the level of your internal conflict reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?”
“Do not call your defeat an agreement,” he said.
And for good measure: “Someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you. Not now, not ever.”
Now some of this is undoubtedly done for domestic consumption. But the two sides sound like they couldn’t be farther apart.
The president has delivered a flurry of mixed messages on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway where an Iranian blockade has choked off one-fifth of the world’s oil traffic. He has said that the situation will work itself out. He has said our European allies (who refused to join our effort to intervene) should resolve this since the U.S. doesn’t rely on the strait. And he has also said that opening Hormuz is a top American priority.
Iran, which has sprinkled the strait with mines, told the U.N. that the waterway is open to any country not backing the U.S. and Israeli attacks. But other nations, and their insurance companies, are reluctant to send billion-dollar tankers into such troubled waters.
The impasse is hurting the president here at home, where soaring oil costs have boosted gas prices and tanked the stock market, shrinking the value of all those 401Ks. When Trump announced the bombing pause Monday, the market snapped back for a day. If there’s one thing Wall Street hates, it’s uncertainty.
Despite signaling that the war is practically over because “we’ve won,” Trump just dispatched at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne to the Middle East, along with the USS Tripoli, carrying 2,200 Marines.
Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has been playing the bad cop, vowing if there’s no deal “to destroy the enemy as viciously as possible.”
What’s equally unclear is who we’re talking to, with Pakistan playing the intermediary role. Trump has talked about regime change, though there seems no chance of that, and there’s chatter about doing business with the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard commander who at times has taken a diplomatic approach with the West.
But with so many leaders killed and Ayatollah Khamenei’s son in hiding, no one knows how much influence Ghalibaf, a failed presidential candidate, still has.
Just yesterday, Ghalibaf, invoking the Israeli prime minister, warned the administration against sacrificing American soldiers for “Netanyahu’s delusions,” according to al-Jazeera. That hardly sounds conciliatory.
What’s more, the Iranians are famously difficult to negotiate with, going back on promises and moving the goalposts. Just ask Jimmy Carter.
Trump tore up the Obama administration’s nuke deal with the Iranians when he first took office, and now says he wants an agreement in which they renounce the pursuit of nuclear weapons. That is extremely unlikely, although the U.S. attacks last June and this month have obviously crippled their efforts.
My sense is that Trump doesn’t want to bomb Iran’s oil and gas facilities, which would clearly extend the war and widen a conflict that has already spread to the surrounding Arab countries. Nor does he want to be seen as backing down. No wonder he’s postponed a showdown.
WHO ACTUALLY RUNS IRAN RIGHT NOW? THE KEY POWER PLAYERS AS TRUMP CLAIMS TALKS TO ‘TOP’ OFFICIAL
“President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday.
The Iranians don’t want a temporary pause in the war, unnamed officials told the New York Times, out of concern that the U.S. and Israel would use the time to rebuild their forces for further airstrikes.
Iran’s only real weapon right now is drones, a few of which have caused damage in Israel, while others are aimed at U.S. military bases in the region. One drone sparked a huge fire at the Kuwaiti airport.
A report by the state broadcaster, Press TV, confirms that Iran won’t accept the U.S. proposal for a cease-fire. In its counter-offer, the dictatorship would also keep sole control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Among other demands, according to Press TV: Guarantees that the attacks on Iran won’t be started up again, and the payment of war damages and reparations. Iran wants any deal extended to Hezbollah, its Lebanese proxy, which fired rockets at Israel when the war began, triggering an invasion of southern Lebanon.
Another state media outlet, Fars News Agency, quoted a source as saying of a cease-fire: “It is not logical to enter into such a process with those who violate the agreement.”
The president has lashed out at the media for painting a relentlessly negative picture of a war that has largely been an American triumph. But it turns out that covering the endgame — if that’s what this is — is equally challenging.
At the moment, it looks like Trump wants a deal more than Iran, given the war’s unpopularity at home and its damage to the economy. For an America First candidate who ran against foreign wars, the prospect of a long, Iraq-style quagmire would be the worst possible outcome.
“Is the U.S. Repeating the Mistakes That Led to Forever Wars?” the Wall Street Journal asked yesterday.
But the coverage of the latest rhetorical sniping accurately reflects the vagueness of a process that may not deserve to be called negotiations.
It is, above all, a blinding fog.
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Homan fires back at CBS host on DHS shutdown blame, points to Democrats as the culprit
Border czar Tom Homan declared that Democrats “shut down DHS” during a heated exchange on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Sunday, as host Margaret Brennan questioned why the Trump administration has not compelled Congress to return and resolve the funding standoff.
“Look, I hope so. I mean, they got to fund the Department of Homeland Security,” Homan said, warning the U.S. is in “an increased threat posture right now because of what’s going on in the world.”
The remarks came as the Department of Homeland Security remains partially shut down for more than a month, with Congress out of session for a two-week recess and tens of thousands of employees missing paychecks.
HOUSE CONSERVATIVES RAGE AGAINST SENATE DHS SHUTDOWN DEAL
The tense dispute centered on disagreements over immigration enforcement policy, particularly the role and authority of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Brennen pressed Homan on whether President Donald Trump would force lawmakers to return early, noting that Republicans control both chambers of Congress.
“But Republicans control both chambers. This is the president’s party,” Brennan said.
Homan rejected that framing, placing blame squarely on Democrats.
HOMAN FIRES BACK AT BOOKER AFTER SENATOR VOICES ‘OUTRAGE’ OVER ICE AIRPORT DEPLOYMENTS
“The Democrats shut down DHS. They voted to shut down DHS because they simply won’t fund DHS, because they want to change ICE policies so ICE is less effective in the interior,” Homan said.
Brennen pointed out that a bipartisan Senate bill to fund DHS had passed but was rejected by House leadership, prompting her to ask why the White House could not unify the GOP.
“This isn’t a White House issue. This is Democrats shutting down the Department of Homeland Security,” Homan responded, adding that he has met with lawmakers “from both sides.”
JOHNSON ACCUSES DEMOCRATS OF TAKING GOVERNMENT HOSTAGE OVER ‘CRAZY’ IMMIGRATION AGENDA
When asked directly whether he supported the Senate bill, Homan avoided a direct endorsement.
“I support Congress opening up the entire government, the entire DHS, and not holding people in DHS hostage because they don’t like immigration enforcement,” Homan continued. “I support the President of the United States in getting DHS fully funded and operating.”
Homan also addressed operational impacts of the shutdown, including staffing shortages at airports. He said the administration has taken steps to mitigate disruptions, including deploying ICE agents to assist TSA operations.
“I’m hoping with this change that President Trump put in place… that more will come back to work,” Homan said, referring to efforts to restore pay for TSA officers.
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Homan acknowledged the strain on airport operations during the shutdown, noting that hundreds of TSA employees had left their posts as pay disruptions dragged on, forcing federal agencies to adjust staffing to keep security lines moving.
“We’ll keep more ICE agents there… we’ll be there as long as they need us until they get back to normal operations,” Homan said.
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Iran’s war against the US and Israel is being fueled by North Korean weapons, expert warns
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s vast missile system is the brainchild of the U.S.-designated state-sponsor of terrorism, the communist North Korea regime, which works hand in glove with Iran, according to one of the world’s leading experts on the Iran-North Korea strategic alliance.
“The missile launched at Diego Garcia was a Musudan. The Iranians bought 19 of these from the North Koreans and took delivery in 2005. They have had this capability since 2005 — and this is no ‘secret weapon,”’ Bruce Bechtol, who co-authored with Anthony Celso the groundbreaking book “Rogue Allies: The Strategic Partnership Between Iran and North Korea,” told Fox News Digital.
Fox News Digital reported last week that Iran significantly escalated its war effort against the U.S. with its launch of two intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia—roughly 2,500 miles from Iran.
TRUMP PROVEN RIGHT ON IRAN’S LONG-RANGE MISSILE CAPABILITY AS REGIME TARGETS US-UK BASE, EXPERTS SAY
Bechtol said, “The most important threat from Iran as the war with the United States and Israel has evolved has been the ballistic missiles, launched not only at U.S. facilities and Israeli cities, but also at neighboring Islamic countries. Thus, it is important to consider this capability and where Iran got it.”
He said, “The short-range ballistic missiles that Iran has launched at key U.S. facilities and at neighboring Arab states include a key system – the “QIAM.” The QIAM was developed and improved with North Korean assistance… North Korea has proliferated a lot to Iran that we are seeing right now in the war.”
The joint U.S.-Israeli war against Iran’s regime, the world’s worst state-sponsor of terrorism, according to the U.S. State Department, has entered its fifth week of combat.
Bechtol, who is a professor of political science in the Department of Security Studies at Angelo State University in Texas, noted that, according to the Wisconsin Project, North Korea had constructed a large missile test facility at Emamshahr, a city in the Fars Province in Iran, and a tracking facility at Tabas in South Khorasan province.
He said that North Korea aided Iran with crucial technology “for targets farther away from Iran.”
“The North Koreans proliferated around 150 No Dong systems to Iran in the late 1990s. The Iranians were apparently very happy with the missiles the North Koreans provided them, and, following the earlier precedent of the Scud C factory, contracted with Pyongyang to build a No Dong facility in Iran.”
AFTER THE STRIKES, HOW WOULD THE US SECURE IRAN’S ENRICHED URANIUM?
Bechtol continued, “The Iranians called this “new” missile the Shahab-3. The Shahab-3 is almost an exact copy of the No Dong. Once the Shahab-3 was up and running, the North Koreans moved forward with the Iranians in improving its range and lethality.”
He said, “With assistance from the North Koreans, the Iranians were then able to produce (at the No Dong facility) the Emad and the Ghadr. The Emad has a range of 1,750 kilometers (approx 1,087 miles) and the Ghadr has a range of 1,950 kilometers (approximately 1,212 miles.) The Iranians have used these two systems to target not only Israel, but their Arab neighbors (including U.S. bases located in these countries) throughout the ongoing first stages of this conflict.”
Bechtol said that the North Koreans spawned an Iranian missile warhead that weighs a ton and a half to two tons on the powerful Khorramshahr-4. “There is another system capable of hitting Israel that has been even more lethal than any of the systems described thus far. This system is called the ‘Khorramshahr,’ and the fourth version of this system, appropriately called the ‘Khorramshahr-4,’ has been proven to carry a warhead larger than any other in Iran’s missile inventory, armed with what appears to be cluster munitions,” he said.
He described the strategic partnership, noting: “North Korea is the seller and Iran is the buyer. North Korea proliferates weapons systems, technology, parts and components, technicians, engineers and specialists and military capabilities (such as the building of underground facilities) to Iran. Iran pays North Korea with cash and oil. Simple as that.”
Bechtol said the only way to stop this is through sanctions enforcement against North Korea. “The sanctions that are needed are already on the books. But the USA and our key allies need to robustly enforce them. We need to go after banks, front companies and cyber entities in order to squeeze the money and contain or destroy the supply chain.”
He said, “More emphasis needs to be placed, and more action needs to be taken using the Proliferation Security Initiative — an underused aspect of preventing North Korea’s arms from flowing to rogue nations and terrorist groups. If you cut off the supply chain, you cut off the proliferation.”
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Olympic gold medalist Caster Semenya blasts IOC’s new policy to ensure fairness in women’s events
Caster Semenya, a two-time Olympic gold medalist in the women’s 800-meter race, blasted the International Olympic Committee (IOC) over a new policy to ensure fairness for females competing at the highest level of sports.
Semenya, who has disorders of sex development (DSD), has testosterone levels higher than a typical female range and has launched legal challenges in order to compete in the women’s category. Semenya said she expected more from IOC President Kirsty Coventry.
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“Personally, for her as a leader, she’s an African, I’m sure she understands how, you know, we as Africans, we are coming from, as a global South, you know, you cannot control genetics,” Semenya said Thursday. “For me personally, for her being a woman coming from Africa, knowing how, you know, African women or women in the global South are affected by that.”
The IOC said it would employ genetic testing to verify the biological sex of competitors in women’s events. The IOC said that eligibility for events in the women’s category is “now limited to biological females, determined on the basis of a one-time SRY gene screening.”
“Evidence‑based and expert‑informed, the policy – applicable for the LA28 Olympic Games onwards – protects fairness, safety and integrity in the female category,” according to the organization.
“Obviously if you say the science, because we talk about science here, if the science is clear, show us who decided and don’t dress that as a lie because it’s a lie and we know because we’ve seen it so if we were to answer or confront Kirsty that’s how we gonna respond and we’ll respond strong as we are because it affects women,” Semenya said.
Semenya won Olympic gold medals at the 2012 and 2016 Games but is banned from competing in certain international meets like the Olympics and world championships since she refused to follow the rules and take medication to reduce her hormone levels.
“For me personally, I’ll say the voice is not heard because you taking it as a tick box, you ticking a box so you can go clarify or say yes we’ve consulted,” she said. “For me, it’s you ticking the box.”
The IOC said it came to the decision to implement the policy after consulting with a panel of experts, with the goal of providing equal opportunity for women in sport.
“The policy was developed on the basis that it is universally accepted that providing for a female category is necessary to allow both males and females equal access to elite sport,” the IOC said in an announcement.
“It was guided by the IOC’s modern goals relating to equality (equal opportunities for female athletes in finals, on podiums and in championships); enhancing Olympic value (featuring both women’s and men’s finals in every sport); and visibility and inspiration (celebrating female athletes on the Olympic podium to inspire and represent women and girls worldwide).”
Coventry suggested that the continued enabling of males in women’s sports is “not safe” in the announcement.
“As a former athlete, I passionately believe in the rights of all Olympians to take part in fair competition. The policy that we have announced is based on science and has been led by medical experts. At the Olympic Games, even the smallest margins can be the difference between victory and defeat,” she said.
“So, it is absolutely clear that it would not be fair for biological males to compete in the female category. In addition, in some sports it would simply not be safe.”
Fox News’ Jackson Thompson contributed to this report.
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