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Destroy the regime’s power without occupying Iran: A smarter war plan
The U.S.-Iran war has been underway for a month now. It is increasingly difficult to distinguish real strategic and military expertise from politicized opinion, speculation and narrative. Too many people jump immediately from where we are today to a full-scale ground invasion. They assume the only option is for U.S. forces to seize Tehran, secure nuclear material by force, destroy a supposed million-man army, and then get pulled into another decades-long nation-building effort or fight a Maoist-style insurgency. That is not analysis. That is shallow thinking rooted in outdated and often biased mental models of war.
President Trump has signaled a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, now extended to April 6. We are days into that timeline. But the real question is not what has been done. The real question is what options remain.
It is a given that CENTCOM and Israel will continue systematic attacks on Iran’s military system. Iran entered this war with thousands of ballistic missiles, hundreds of launchers, a dispersed drone enterprise, a layered naval capability in the Gulf, remnants of a nuclear enrichment program, and a military industrial base built for redundancy and survivability. That system is being destroyed. But it is not yet eliminated.
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At the same time, Israel is targeting something far more important than just military capability. It is targeting the regime’s ability to rule once the bombs stop falling. That means hunting and eliminating political and military leadership. It means degrading the Basij, the regime’s internal enforcement arm. It means targeting checkpoints, intelligence nodes and internal security infrastructure.
This is not just tactical action. This is strategic pressure applied simultaneously against Iran’s means and its will. Its ability to fight and its ability to govern are being targeted at the same time. That is how you coerce behavior change without occupying a capital.
It is important to anchor any discussion in the stated strategic objectives. As articulated by senior U.S. leaders, the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and its ability to produce more, dismantle its navy and its ability to threaten global shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
While regime change has been mentioned and questions have been raised about whether it would be good or bad, it is not the declared U.S. objective. Behavior change is. The current regime has been given pathways, including diplomatic proposals, to alter its course. That matters because it shapes the options available. This is not about occupying Tehran. It is about paralyzing the regime, destroying its capabilities, and forcing it to accept new terms.
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If the regime collapses under the combined weight of military pressure and its own economic fragility, the United States can still achieve its objectives in a fundamentally different strategic environment. But regime collapse is not required to succeed.
From here, the range of options expands, not contracts.
One option is to strike the regime’s economic center of gravity. Kharg Island handles roughly 85 to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, often between 1.5 and 2 million barrels per day. That oil is the regime’s primary source of hard currency. Seize it, disable it, or destroy export capacity, and you do not just hurt the economy. You paralyze the regime’s ability to fund its military, sustain patronage networks, and maintain internal control.
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This matters because the regime has already shown signs of fragility under economic pressure. The January 2026 protests were driven by inflation, banking instability, and the inability to provide basic services, including severe water shortages affecting millions in Tehran. There were even discussions about relocating the capital due to an inability to provide potable water. The regime responded with mass violence, killing over 32,000 civilians in one of the most brutal crackdowns in its modern history. Therefore, economic pressure is not theoretical. It has already brought the regime close to the edge.
Another option is to target the national power grid. Iran’s electricity system is concentrated around major urban hubs. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages across entire regions. Tehran goes dark.
The regime would be in immediate trouble without power. Command and control, surveillance, communications, and internal security coordination all depend on it. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages without total destruction of infrastructure. The U.S. has demonstrated that capability in past conflicts.
Cyber operations expand this further. Iran has repeatedly shut down internet access to control its population. That capability can be reversed. Disrupt regime command networks while enabling connectivity for the population through external systems. Information becomes a weapon. Control of narrative, coordination, and awareness shifts away from the regime.
The Strait of Hormuz remains decisive terrain. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, about 20 million barrels per day, flows through it. Iran’s strategy has long been to threaten and manipulate that flow.
One option is to move from deterrence to control. Seize or neutralize key islands. Experts have long identified Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands as critical terrain controlling access to the Strait. Qeshm Island, sitting along the northern edge, hosts IRGC naval facilities, missile systems, and surveillance infrastructure. These positions enable Iran’s anti-ship missile coverage, fast attack craft operations, and maritime coercion. Controlling or neutralizing these islands would fundamentally alter Iran’s ability to contest the Strait.
Iran has also built a “toll booth” system in the Strait. The IRGC has created a de facto system where ships must be approved, routed through Iranian-influenced lanes, and in some cases pay millions for safe passage. Reports indicate fees reaching up to $2 million per tanker, selective approval based on political alignment, and designated transit corridors near Larak Island under regime control.
The United States and Israel have the capability to systematically dismantle this system. Target the leadership directing it. Destroy the coastal radar, ISR nodes and command centers enabling it. Eliminate the fast attack craft, drones, and missile batteries enforcing it. Break the system, and you break Iran’s ability to turn a global chokepoint into a regime-controlled revenue and coercion mechanism.
A related option is to interdict Iranian oil exports at sea. Iran exports roughly 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day, much of it through sanctions evasion networks. Stop and divert tankers. Enforce inspections and seizures at scale. This is already happening at a limited level. Scaling it drives regime revenue toward zero. No revenue means no missiles, no proxies, no repression, no functioning state.
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Other options shift inward. Iran’s population is over 85 million, young, urban, and repeatedly discontent. Available polling, protest patterns, and observable unrest all suggest that well over 50 percent of the population opposes the regime, and possibly much higher. This is not a solid or stable base of power. The January 2026 protests are a clear signal of that underlying pressure.
Until now, civilians have largely been told to shelter. That could change. Messaging, corridors, and psychological operations could begin to separate the population from the regime’s control mechanisms.
That can be paired with support to internal resistance. Air resupply of weapons, communications, and intelligence directly to resistance groups that may or may not exist. Iran has multiple internal fault lines, ethnic, political, and regional, that have historically produced opposition and unrest. When external pressure aligns with internal resistance, regimes fracture faster, or at least the pressure on the regime increases significantly.
At the same time, strikes can continue expanding beyond traditional military targets. The regime’s control system is a network: leadership, IRGC headquarters, Basij units, police, intelligence services, and repression infrastructure. Target those nodes, and you accelerate the erosion of centralized authority.
History shows pressure creates fractures. Military leaders hedge. Intelligence services fracture. Political elites reposition. Defections occur. Working with defectors multiplies effects far beyond what strikes alone can achieve.
There is also much we do not know. We do not have full visibility into where the regime is strongest or weakest. But indicators matter. Reports of attempts to expand mobilization, including lowering recruitment thresholds to as young as twelve, suggest stress. That is not the behavior of a confident regime.
IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
None of these options exist in isolation. They can be combined.
Destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and production capacity. Dismantle its navy. Continue degrading its nuclear program. Deny its ability to project power beyond its borders. At the same time, paralyze decision-making by targeting leadership and command systems. Apply pressure across military, economic, informational, and political domains simultaneously.
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Attack the regime’s means and its will at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously. The objective is to impose multiple dilemmas, more than the regime can handle. Force it into reactive survival. Stretch its decision cycles. Overwhelm its ability to coordinate and control.
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War is not a checklist. It is the alignment of ends, ways, and means under conditions of uncertainty. Options can be sequenced, layered, or applied simultaneously.
The United States has not run out of options. It has plenty it has not used, many that no one is talking about or that none of us can fully imagine without access to far more than what exists in the public domain, but could.
Lastly, be careful of analysts who speak in certainties or rely on surface analogies. Iran is not Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. It is not 1968, 2002, or 2003. The context of each is fundamentally different. The political objectives, from regime behavior change to regime survival, are different. Past wars involved nation building, attempts to create democracy, prolonged fights against insurgencies, and enemies who enjoyed sanctuary outside the operating environment. Those are not the same conditions or objectives at play here. The geography, technology, intelligence and regional dynamics are different. The options available today are far broader and more precise against the objectives.
We know a lot about what has been struck. We do not fully know what remains. More importantly, we do not know what decisions will be made next by either side. That uncertainty is not a flaw in analysis. It is the nature of war.
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BREAKING: US Diplomat Found Dead
An American diplomat assigned to the U.S. Embassy in Myanmar has been found dead under mysterious circumstances, prompting a murder investigation that has already led to charges against a Thai national in the military-ruled Southeast Asian nation.
The State Department confirmed the death of the embassy employee but has remained tight-lipped about the details surrounding the case, citing privacy concerns for the diplomat’s family and loved ones.
“Out of respect for the privacy of the family and loved ones, we have no further information to provide at this time,” the State Department said in an emailed reply to questions from The Associated Press.
American officials stationed in neighboring Thailand, along with representatives from the U.S. Embassy in Myanmar, referred all inquiries back to the State Department, underscoring the sensitivity of the investigation and the limited public information that has been released so far.
According to members of Myanmar’s diplomatic community, the diplomat was discovered dead on May 11 at the Sakura Residence & Hotel in Yangon. The property serves as a long-term residence for diplomats, foreign business executives, aid workers, and other international visitors. Located roughly one mile from the U.S. Embassy, the hotel has long been considered a secure location frequently used by members of the diplomatic corps.
The circumstances surrounding the diplomat’s death remain unclear, and authorities have provided few public details about what investigators believe occurred inside the residence.
However, significant developments emerged this week when a Thai woman appeared in court and was formally charged in connection with the case. According to two attorneys familiar with the proceedings, the woman faces a murder charge as well as a separate immigration-related offense under Myanmar law.
If convicted, the penalties could be severe. Under Myanmar’s legal system, a murder conviction can carry a sentence ranging from 10 years in prison to life imprisonment or even the death penalty, depending on the circumstances of the case and the court’s findings.
Thailand’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that it has been providing consular assistance to the accused woman and has notified her family about the case. Officials declined to comment further on the allegations or the evidence being presented by prosecutors.
The case is unfolding against the backdrop of ongoing instability in Myanmar, which has been engulfed in political turmoil and armed conflict since the military seized power in a 2021 coup that ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
Since then, the ruling military junta has faced growing resistance from pro-democracy groups, ethnic militias, and armed opposition forces. The conflict has expanded into a nationwide civil war that has left thousands dead and displaced millions, while drawing international condemnation from Western governments, including the United States.
The country’s military government maintains strict control over information, making independent reporting and transparency difficult. Authorities rarely release detailed information regarding criminal investigations, particularly those involving foreign nationals or diplomatic personnel.
Consistent with that pattern, police officials, prison authorities, and court representatives have all declined to publicly discuss the case involving the American diplomat. No official explanation has been provided regarding the cause of death, potential motives, or evidence supporting the charges against the Thai woman.
For now, many questions remain unanswered. U.S. officials have offered little information beyond confirming the diplomat’s death, while Myanmar authorities continue to conduct their investigation largely behind closed doors.
As the case moves through Myanmar’s judicial system, American officials, members of the diplomatic community, and the diplomat’s family are awaiting further answers about what led to the death of a U.S. government employee serving overseas in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
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Supreme Court Delivers Landmark Midterm Decision With 6-1 Ruling
Florida Republicans notched a major victory this week after the Florida Supreme Court handed Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP lawmakers a significant legal win, ruling that the state’s newly drawn congressional map will remain in place for the 2026 midterm elections.
In a decisive 6-1 ruling, the court rejected an emergency effort by left-leaning voting-rights organizations seeking to block the map before voters head to the polls this fall. The decision ensures that Florida’s elections will proceed under the congressional districts approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature during a special session earlier this year, bringing much-needed certainty to the state’s electoral process.
The legal challenge was brought by the Equal Ground Education Fund and several allied groups, which claimed the map was drawn to benefit Republicans and therefore violated Florida’s Fair Districts Amendment. That amendment, approved by voters in 2010, prohibits lawmakers from intentionally drawing districts to favor or disadvantage a political party.
The plaintiffs sought an injunction that would have prevented the map from taking effect while their broader lawsuit continued through the court system. However, Florida’s highest court declined to intervene.
Writing for the majority, the court emphasized that the case should proceed through the normal judicial process before the Supreme Court becomes involved.
“At this time, we do not have jurisdiction over that matter,” the majority opinion stated.
The justices further made clear that they would not assume future rulings from lower courts would automatically warrant Supreme Court review, signaling a commitment to allowing the judicial process to play out as designed.
The ruling provides stability for Florida voters, election officials, and candidates as the election season rapidly approaches. With candidate qualifying deadlines looming and election preparations already underway, the court’s decision removes uncertainty that could have disrupted the electoral process.
Justice Jorge Labarga was the lone dissenter.
Labarga argued that the court should have immediately stepped in because of the statewide significance of the dispute and the fast-approaching election calendar.
“Unfortunately, for now, and with a filing deadline and an election fast approaching, we will not have the opportunity to review the issues of statewide importance raised in the petitioners’ efforts to enjoin Florida’s 2026 congressional map,” Labarga wrote.
Notably, Labarga remains the only member of the Florida Supreme Court who was not appointed by a Republican governor.
The decision marks yet another victory for DeSantis, who has consistently argued that Florida’s congressional districts should comply with recent federal court rulings limiting the use of race in redistricting decisions. The governor has maintained that districts drawn primarily around racial considerations face increasing constitutional scrutiny and should be revisited to ensure compliance with federal law.
Following those court rulings, DeSantis pushed for changes to portions of Florida’s congressional map that had previously been crafted with race-based considerations in mind. Rather than waiting for lawmakers to formulate a proposal, the governor’s office took an active role in developing a new map.
Jason Poreda, an aide to DeSantis, drafted the congressional plan that was ultimately presented to lawmakers. Republican legislators later adopted the proposal without making changes, reflecting strong support for the governor’s approach.
Predictably, Democrats and voting-rights activists immediately objected to the new districts, citing testimony regarding partisan voting data and public statements discussing potential Republican advantages under the map. Supporters of the plan countered that the changes were driven by evolving legal standards and recent court decisions, not partisan considerations.
Florida’s 28 congressional seats make it one of the nation’s most influential political battlegrounds. Republicans believe the new map could help solidify the party’s position in the state and strengthen efforts to maintain or expand the GOP majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The Florida case is part of a larger national battle over congressional redistricting as states across the country grapple with court rulings that continue to reshape election law. Republicans have increasingly argued that district maps should be based on constitutional principles and equal representation rather than race-based political engineering.
While the underlying lawsuit remains active and could continue through Florida’s courts, the Supreme Court’s decision ensures that the 2026 elections will move forward under the current map.
Justice Adam Tanenbaum highlighted that point in a separate concurring opinion, emphasizing the importance of certainty as election season nears.
“The people of Florida can rest assured that elections will take place this year,” Tanenbaum wrote.
His statement underscored what many Republicans view as the central takeaway from the ruling: Florida voters now have clarity, election officials can move forward with confidence, and the state’s democratic process can proceed without last-minute judicial interference.
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The Moment Trump Supporters Have Waited For — Happens At 4pm
Here’s a rewritten version in a more engaging, conservative news style:
President Donald Trump signaled Thursday that his patience with Iran has run out, declaring there will be “no more negotiation” after accusing the regime of dragging out talks while continuing to resist U.S. demands.
During an appearance on Fox & Friends, Trump said Iran has squandered multiple opportunities to reach an agreement and warned that the United States remains prepared to increase pressure if Tehran refuses to comply.
“Well, that could happen if we want to keep going,” Trump said when asked about reports that Iran had been given a final ultimatum. “And the deal is a very good deal. The problem with the deal — it could be the greatest deal in history. They could wave the white flag of surrender.”
The president mocked media coverage that he believes has downplayed Iran’s deteriorating military position.
“‘We surrender. We’re finished. Praise be to Allah,’” Trump said, describing what he believes would be required before some outlets would acknowledge a U.S. victory. “And they could do all of this loud and clear, and the fake news would say it was a great victory for Iran.”
Trump then painted a grim picture of Iran’s military capabilities, claiming U.S. operations have crippled much of the country’s defensive infrastructure.
“We’re killing them. They have no navy. No air force. No anti-aircraft,” Trump said. “We are flying planes over the middle of Tehran and they don’t have any idea.”
According to Trump, U.S. actions have severely damaged Iran’s radar systems, missile launchers, drone capabilities, and air defenses.
“We’ve knocked out all their radar, all of their anti-aircraft, much of their missiles — probably less than 20%,” he said. “Most of their launchers, the missile launches, which is quite important. Their drone capacity is way down. Their attacks are very minor. They’re finished.”
The president also blasted major media outlets for what he described as misleading coverage of the conflict.
“And yet the fake news — just like with the election — the fake news is out there saying, ‘Wow, Iran is doing just so well. Trump is doing terribly,’” he said.
Trump specifically singled out MSNBC host Joe Scarborough, saying he recently watched a portion of Morning Joe and was stunned by the program’s portrayal of events.
“I watched it yesterday, one of his shows for five minutes,” Trump said. “This fake Joe Scarborough talking about how well Iran is doing. Where did that come from? It’s just the craziest thing.”
Despite Trump’s tougher rhetoric, Fox News anchor Bret Baier reported Wednesday that the president remains cautiously optimistic that a diplomatic resolution is still possible.
“I talked to him today, and there was this sense of optimism — cautious optimism — that they maybe get to a deal soon,” Baier said during America Reports.
At the same time, tensions remain high. Baier noted that Iranian state media announced a new authority intended to regulate traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes. The proposal would require vessels to obtain authorization before crossing the strategic waterway, a move likely to face resistance from the international community.
Additional details emerged Wednesday regarding recent U.S. military operations. Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst revealed that Trump personally contacted him from the Situation Room shortly before American forces launched another wave of strikes against Iranian military targets.
According to Yingst, the president described the operation before it began, underscoring the administration’s confidence in its military strategy.
Following the strikes, Trump took to Truth Social to deliver a blunt assessment of Iran’s condition.
“Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess,” the president wrote.
With negotiations appearing increasingly fragile and military pressure intensifying, the coming days could prove decisive in determining whether Iran returns to the negotiating table—or faces even greater consequences from the United States.
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