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Destroy the regime’s power without occupying Iran: A smarter war plan

Published

2 weeks ago

March 31, 2026

The U.S.-Iran war has been underway for a month now. It is increasingly difficult to distinguish real strategic and military expertise from politicized opinion, speculation and narrative. Too many people jump immediately from where we are today to a full-scale ground invasion. They assume the only option is for U.S. forces to seize Tehran, secure nuclear material by force, destroy a supposed million-man army, and then get pulled into another decades-long nation-building effort or fight a Maoist-style insurgency. That is not analysis. That is shallow thinking rooted in outdated and often biased mental models of war.

President Trump has signaled a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, now extended to April 6. We are days into that timeline. But the real question is not what has been done. The real question is what options remain.

It is a given that CENTCOM and Israel will continue systematic attacks on Iran’s military system. Iran entered this war with thousands of ballistic missiles, hundreds of launchers, a dispersed drone enterprise, a layered naval capability in the Gulf, remnants of a nuclear enrichment program, and a military industrial base built for redundancy and survivability. That system is being destroyed. But it is not yet eliminated.

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At the same time, Israel is targeting something far more important than just military capability. It is targeting the regime’s ability to rule once the bombs stop falling. That means hunting and eliminating political and military leadership. It means degrading the Basij, the regime’s internal enforcement arm. It means targeting checkpoints, intelligence nodes and internal security infrastructure.

This is not just tactical action. This is strategic pressure applied simultaneously against Iran’s means and its will. Its ability to fight and its ability to govern are being targeted at the same time. That is how you coerce behavior change without occupying a capital.

It is important to anchor any discussion in the stated strategic objectives. As articulated by senior U.S. leaders, the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and its ability to produce more, dismantle its navy and its ability to threaten global shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

While regime change has been mentioned and questions have been raised about whether it would be good or bad, it is not the declared U.S. objective. Behavior change is. The current regime has been given pathways, including diplomatic proposals, to alter its course. That matters because it shapes the options available. This is not about occupying Tehran. It is about paralyzing the regime, destroying its capabilities, and forcing it to accept new terms.

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If the regime collapses under the combined weight of military pressure and its own economic fragility, the United States can still achieve its objectives in a fundamentally different strategic environment. But regime collapse is not required to succeed.

From here, the range of options expands, not contracts.

One option is to strike the regime’s economic center of gravity. Kharg Island handles roughly 85 to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, often between 1.5 and 2 million barrels per day. That oil is the regime’s primary source of hard currency. Seize it, disable it, or destroy export capacity, and you do not just hurt the economy. You paralyze the regime’s ability to fund its military, sustain patronage networks, and maintain internal control.

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This matters because the regime has already shown signs of fragility under economic pressure. The January 2026 protests were driven by inflation, banking instability, and the inability to provide basic services, including severe water shortages affecting millions in Tehran. There were even discussions about relocating the capital due to an inability to provide potable water. The regime responded with mass violence, killing over 32,000 civilians in one of the most brutal crackdowns in its modern history. Therefore, economic pressure is not theoretical. It has already brought the regime close to the edge.

Another option is to target the national power grid. Iran’s electricity system is concentrated around major urban hubs. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages across entire regions. Tehran goes dark.

The regime would be in immediate trouble without power. Command and control, surveillance, communications, and internal security coordination all depend on it. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages without total destruction of infrastructure. The U.S. has demonstrated that capability in past conflicts.

Cyber operations expand this further. Iran has repeatedly shut down internet access to control its population. That capability can be reversed. Disrupt regime command networks while enabling connectivity for the population through external systems. Information becomes a weapon. Control of narrative, coordination, and awareness shifts away from the regime.

The Strait of Hormuz remains decisive terrain. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, about 20 million barrels per day, flows through it. Iran’s strategy has long been to threaten and manipulate that flow.

One option is to move from deterrence to control. Seize or neutralize key islands. Experts have long identified Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands as critical terrain controlling access to the Strait. Qeshm Island, sitting along the northern edge, hosts IRGC naval facilities, missile systems, and surveillance infrastructure. These positions enable Iran’s anti-ship missile coverage, fast attack craft operations, and maritime coercion. Controlling or neutralizing these islands would fundamentally alter Iran’s ability to contest the Strait.

Iran has also built a “toll booth” system in the Strait. The IRGC has created a de facto system where ships must be approved, routed through Iranian-influenced lanes, and in some cases pay millions for safe passage. Reports indicate fees reaching up to $2 million per tanker, selective approval based on political alignment, and designated transit corridors near Larak Island under regime control.

The United States and Israel have the capability to systematically dismantle this system. Target the leadership directing it. Destroy the coastal radar, ISR nodes and command centers enabling it. Eliminate the fast attack craft, drones, and missile batteries enforcing it. Break the system, and you break Iran’s ability to turn a global chokepoint into a regime-controlled revenue and coercion mechanism.

A related option is to interdict Iranian oil exports at sea. Iran exports roughly 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day, much of it through sanctions evasion networks. Stop and divert tankers. Enforce inspections and seizures at scale. This is already happening at a limited level. Scaling it drives regime revenue toward zero. No revenue means no missiles, no proxies, no repression, no functioning state.

INSIDE IRAN’S MILITARY: MISSILES, MILITIAS AND A FORCE BUILT FOR SURVIVAL

Other options shift inward. Iran’s population is over 85 million, young, urban, and repeatedly discontent. Available polling, protest patterns, and observable unrest all suggest that well over 50 percent of the population opposes the regime, and possibly much higher. This is not a solid or stable base of power. The January 2026 protests are a clear signal of that underlying pressure.

Until now, civilians have largely been told to shelter. That could change. Messaging, corridors, and psychological operations could begin to separate the population from the regime’s control mechanisms.

That can be paired with support to internal resistance. Air resupply of weapons, communications, and intelligence directly to resistance groups that may or may not exist. Iran has multiple internal fault lines, ethnic, political, and regional, that have historically produced opposition and unrest. When external pressure aligns with internal resistance, regimes fracture faster, or at least the pressure on the regime increases significantly.

At the same time, strikes can continue expanding beyond traditional military targets. The regime’s control system is a network: leadership, IRGC headquarters, Basij units, police, intelligence services, and repression infrastructure. Target those nodes, and you accelerate the erosion of centralized authority.

History shows pressure creates fractures. Military leaders hedge. Intelligence services fracture. Political elites reposition. Defections occur. Working with defectors multiplies effects far beyond what strikes alone can achieve.

There is also much we do not know. We do not have full visibility into where the regime is strongest or weakest. But indicators matter. Reports of attempts to expand mobilization, including lowering recruitment thresholds to as young as twelve, suggest stress. That is not the behavior of a confident regime.

IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

None of these options exist in isolation. They can be combined.

Destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and production capacity. Dismantle its navy. Continue degrading its nuclear program. Deny its ability to project power beyond its borders. At the same time, paralyze decision-making by targeting leadership and command systems. Apply pressure across military, economic, informational, and political domains simultaneously.

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Attack the regime’s means and its will at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously. The objective is to impose multiple dilemmas, more than the regime can handle. Force it into reactive survival. Stretch its decision cycles. Overwhelm its ability to coordinate and control.

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War is not a checklist. It is the alignment of ends, ways, and means under conditions of uncertainty. Options can be sequenced, layered, or applied simultaneously.

The United States has not run out of options. It has plenty it has not used, many that no one is talking about or that none of us can fully imagine without access to far more than what exists in the public domain, but could.

Lastly, be careful of analysts who speak in certainties or rely on surface analogies. Iran is not Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. It is not 1968, 2002, or 2003. The context of each is fundamentally different. The political objectives, from regime behavior change to regime survival, are different. Past wars involved nation building, attempts to create democracy, prolonged fights against insurgencies, and enemies who enjoyed sanctuary outside the operating environment. Those are not the same conditions or objectives at play here. The geography, technology, intelligence and regional dynamics are different. The options available today are far broader and more precise against the objectives.

We know a lot about what has been struck. We do not fully know what remains. More importantly, we do not know what decisions will be made next by either side. That uncertainty is not a flaw in analysis. It is the nature of war.

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Carville tells Dems to quietly prepare power grab with DC, Puerto Rico statehood and Supreme Court packing

Published

58 minutes ago

April 17, 2026

Addison Blake

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville suggested on Thursday that Democrats should quietly prepare to launch a variety of structural changes to ensure a political advantage once they regain power.

Carville and co-host Al Hunt of the “Politics War Room” podcast took questions from listeners on an episode released Thursday. One asked that if Democrats return to power in 2029, whether they should “flood the zone with a corrective implementation policy using their majority to simultaneously enact a myriad of structural changes to save our democracy and preserve our rights?”

“I’ve got some thoughts about what the Democrats should do [when] they return to power in 2029,” Hunt replied. “But, you know, I haven’t thought it through thoroughly, yet. I’m really focused on what they should do when they win the House and maybe the Senate in 2027, and that’s to hold Trump as accountable as they possibly can.”

Carville, however, offered a more aggressive plan of action, saying, “If the Democrats win the presidency and both houses of Congress, I think on day one, they should make Puerto Rico [and] D.C. a state, and they should expand the Supreme Court to 13. F— it. Eat our dust.”

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Statehood for Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico are believed to overwhelmingly favor Democrats, likely giving them four more Senate seats. This move, along with expanding the Supreme Court, would likely be viewed by Republicans as a power grab in the pursuit of ensuring a party’s political dominance.

“They’ve done everything they could,” Carville continued. “They held up the 2000 election. They stole it. They’ve stolen Supreme Court seats. They’ve gerrymandered everything that you can.”

In order to make these changes happen, Carville advises Democrats not to publicly advertise them.

“Don’t run on it. Don’t talk about it. Just do it,” he said.

He then complained about how low-populated states are able to elect too many senators.

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Carville has made bombastic predictions before, such as believing before the election that Trump, having returned to the White House, would jail journalists and commentators like himself.

But after the first few months of Trump’s presidency, Trump’s once seemingly unbreakable coalition has shattered as some of his most prominent backers have accused him of betraying key campaign promises. With experts predicting defeat for Republicans in the midterm elections, Carville thinks the already stymied president will resign from the presidency afterward.

He has also predicted that political and legal retribution will not only target Trump, but his family, their spouses, and his allies.

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WWE women’s champ Jade Cargill on why she has the edge over Rhea Ripley at WrestleMania 42

Published

58 minutes ago

April 17, 2026

Addison Blake

Jade Cargill has been a constant presence in the WrestleMania spotlight since she joined WWE in 2023.

Cargill teamed with Naomi and Bianca Belair at WrestleMania 40 to defeat Dakota Kai, Asuka and Kairi Sane. Cargill pinned Kai for the win in that match. At WrestleMania 41, Cargill made history being a part of the first non-stipulation women’s singles match at the event. She defeated Naomi after their friendship fracture.

She is back in the spotlight once more – this time as the WWE women’s champion.

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Cargill won the title at Saturday Night’s Main Event in November, defeating Tiffany Stratton. On Night 2 of WrestleMania 42 in Las Vegas, she will defend the championship against women’s Elimination Chamber winner Rhea Ripley.

She expressed to Fox News Digital in an interview before her match on Sunday night that she has the edge going in.

“I mean, I’m me. I’m Jade Cargill. I’m the champ. I’m stronger. I’m bigger,” she said. “I mean, she’s been here before, right? Several times. So have I. I’ve had matches against Naomi. Naomi is spectacular in her own right. She was our champion. The only reason why she dropped the title was because she was pregnant. So, it’s not like I haven’t gone up against champions who have graced major events and who have been spectacular in their own right.

“I’ve done this before. I mean, I’m me, that’s all I have to say. The only way to go is up. She’s been up. It’s time to go down. I just don’t see it ending right now. I’m 2-0. I’m red hot. I just formed a group with Michin and B-Fab. Who’s going to stop us?”

Cargill wouldn’t say whether Michin and B-Fab will be by her side at her WrestleMania match but stressed that she found allies in them as Ripley turned her attention away from “Monday Night Raw” and onto “Friday Night Smackdown.”

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She suggested to Fox News Digital the three were allies of convenience rather than a full-fledged stable.

“We’re more of allies. We’re not a group, we’re more of allies. They had their issues with her. I came in with my issues. Like, who are you to come to SmackDown? And I look at our locker room and I’m like, ‘This girl came from Raw to SmackDown and she thinks she’s going to run things and you guys are gonna let …’ Because I played by the rules for too long. I was trying to adjust. It was a year of adjustments – all these things. I was trying to do things the right way when all along, that little voice in me was telling me, ‘No, you know the right way, and the right way is left. Don’t go right. Don’t listen. It’s gonna get you nowhere. You’re going to be going in circles for years.’ And that’s what I was doing.

“So, we all came together and we figured out … Well, they came to me and it was more so, like, ‘You know what? You were right. It shouldn’t be like this. We should band together and get this person who is an outsider, let’s get her out.’ She doesn’t even deserve to be on SmackDown. And that’s why we became allies. We both have a common enemy. And so, we were like, let’s get rid of this girl. Let’s be done. And that was smart.”

Cargill said getting to this point had been a lot of “trial and error” since she joined WWE.

She made her debut at the 2024 Royal Rumble and made her mark on SmackDown by helping out Naomi and Belair. She and Belair became two-time tag team champions in that span and in 2025, she won the Queen of the Ring tournament.

“It’s been a trial-and-error run. It’s also been a trial of adjustments because I was used to being one way,” Cargill told Fox News Digital. “I came in as a babyface while naturally I’m a heel. I want people to hate me. I love the motivation behind it. And then going from being all about myself and into a tag team, that was an adjustment as well.

“It was a lot of elements that I had to change about myself and about my character and growing and learning to be selfless and learning to be a good guy and to care. … So, it was years of trial and error and just adjustments.”

Cargill’s reign has surpassed 165 days and will look to continue her dominance through WrestleMania 42 this weekend.

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Starmer and Macron accused of ‘playing at being relevant’ with Strait of Hormuz plan

Published

58 minutes ago

April 17, 2026

Addison Blake

As British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron convene a summit Friday on the future of the Strait of Hormuz, the two leaders are pushing a European-led plan to reopen the vital shipping lane after the war, without U.S. leadership.

The proposal envisions a post-conflict naval mission made up of Britain, France and other “non-belligerent” countries that would deploy only after fighting ends. Unlike President Donald Trump’s current strategy of blockading Iranian ports with U.S. naval power, the Anglo-French initiative is intended to be separate from the warring parties and focused on restoring commercial shipping.

A senior European official insisted the initiative is not meant to go around Washington, telling Fox News Digital that Paris began discussing a future maritime mission “from day one” of the conflict and is now formalizing those plans jointly with London.

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Macron and Starmer are expected to host a summit to advance what both governments describe as a “coordinated, independent, multinational plan” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the fighting ends.

“France and the United Kingdom will also host a conference in Paris this Friday, bringing together by video conference non-belligerent countries ready to contribute, alongside us, to a multilateral and purely defensive mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the strait when security conditions allow,” Macron wrote on X.

Starmer similarly described the effort as a “coordinated, independent, multinational plan to safeguard international shipping when the conflict ends,” saying Britain had already convened more than 40 nations around the initiative, Reuters reported. Washington was not part of those earlier talks.

The European senior official said the proposed force would be “strictly defensive” and would only deploy after active fighting and bombardment have ended, with the goal of restoring normal shipping rather than enforcing a wartime corridor.

“What we want in the end is no blockade, no toll, no nothing that blocks the fluidity of what is going through the Strait of Hormuz,” the official told Fox News Digital, while stressing that Iran remains “the first problem.”

The official also rejected suggestions that Paris and London are trying to sideline the Trump administration, saying the U.S. has been kept informed and that there is extensive coordination with Washington even if the emerging mission is currently limited to “non-belligerent” countries.

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“We’re coordinating a lot with them,” the official said, adding that the goal is to create a framework that can operate once the conflict is over.

Macron has repeatedly emphasized that France’s envisioned mission would be “strictly defensive” and ruled out escorting ships while “bombings” are ongoing. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said “several dozen countries” already had participated in preparatory discussions led by military chiefs of staff, and that any future mission would also require coordination with Gulf coastal states, according to Reuters.

The Anglo-French initiative comes as Trump has taken a far more aggressive approach, ordering the U.S. Navy to blockade Iranian ports and continue operations aimed at securing the strategic waterway after ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran collapsed in Pakistan.

Critics argue that without American military power, the European proposal risks being largely symbolic.

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Britain and France are overstating what they can realistically achieve, The Henry Jackson Society analyst Barak Seener said.

“Britain and France are playing at being relevant as so-called ‘Middle Powers’ in international affairs,” Seener told Fox News Digital.

“Keir Starmer’s assertion ‘We’re not getting dragged into the war’ disguises the embarrassing fact that the Royal Navy is facing a hollowed out crisis, causing the initiative to be ‘strictly defensive’,” he said.

“France’s navy is also facing structural and budgetary pressures that strain its ability to conduct high-tempo operations.”

“It is laughable that a European coalition of ‘non-belligerent’ countries that are only willing to engage once hostilities have ended can even speak of protecting its shipping lanes,” Seener added.

“Ultimately, the U.S.’s deployment of hard power, consisting of carrier strike groups and fighter aircraft to blockade Iranian ports and clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz, can protect shipping lanes.”

The U.K. government and the White House did not reply to Fox News Digital’s request for comment before publication.