It may have been possible to bequeath this as “expulsion week.”

Instead, this might be “resignation week.”

The House has only expelled six Members in the history of the republic. But it was possible as recently as Monday that the House was primed to wrestle with a mind-boggling four expulsions.

It takes a two-thirds vote to expel a Member. The House last expelled one of its own in late 2023: former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.). Before that, you have to go back to 2002 when the House kicked out late Rep. Jim Traficant (D-Ohio).

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Here was the chopping block:

Calls to expel former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) piled up after reports surfaced that he sexually assaulted a former aide and several other women. Swalwell initially said he would fight the allegations. Then he dropped his bid to become governor of California after a host of once close allies abandoned their support. Swalwell has now resigned, avoiding the ignominious scene of an expulsion.

Then there was former Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). At first, Gonzales denied an affair with an aide who committed suicide by setting herself on fire. Gonzales was locked in a tough primary runoff against Republican Congressional candidate Brandon Herrera. But after pressure, Gonzales finally dropped out of the runoff and isn’t standing for re-election. However, Gonzales intended to stay on until his term expired on January 3 next year. But now Gonzales is out the door, too.

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So two down, two to go.

This is where things grow complicated.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) could face expulsion soon. In late March, the House Ethics Committee held a rare “trial,” declaring she improperly obtained an astonishing $5 million in COVID relief funds. The Ethics panel will likely recommend a punishment for Cherfilus-McCormick next week. The full House doesn’t have to consider or adhere to the prescribed discipline. The congresswoman proclaims her innocence. She faces a criminal trial in Florida in February 2027.

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“The facts are indisputable at this point and so I believe it will be the consensus of this body that she should be expelled,” forecast House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

Rep. Greg Stuebe (R-Fla.) filed a resolution to bounce Cherfilus-McCormick from the body a few months ago. 

And for the Republicans, there’s Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.). Mills is accused of “stolen valor” and exaggeration of his military record. But what triggered the current expulsion push is an allegation that the congressman struck his girlfriend in early 2025. A judge imposed a restraining order against Mills. However, police never charged the congressman. The Ethics Committee is also investigating whether he violated federal campaign rules. But the formal ethics probe of the Florida Republican isn’t as far along as the Cherfilus-McCormick inquiry.

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Johnson is mindful of that fact.

“With regard to Mills, I’m not sure the status of the Ethics Committee investigation and that’s one of the things I’ll be looking into today,” said Johnson.

Four troubled Members. Two Democrats and two Republicans. It was that parity which may have primed the House to take the unprecedented step of expelling those four Members before Swalwell and Gonzales announced their resignations. But a push to expel Cherfiulus-McCormick and not Mills creates a host of problems in the House.

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It’s about the math.

The House swore-in Rep. Clay Fuller (R-Ga.) on Monday night. Fuller won a special election last week to succeed former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) who resigned. That GOP gain is likely offset by an anticipated victory by Democratic Congressional candidate Analilia Mejia in a Thursday special election in New Jersey. This is a Democratic seat which has been vacant since New Jersey Gov. and former Congresswoman Mikie Sherill (D) resigned from the House last fall.

With Swalwell and Gonzales out and Fuller in, the current breakdown is 431 Members: 217 Republicans and 213 Democrats. Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Calif.) dropped his affiliation with the GOP. The addition of Fuller and presumed win by Meija would make the breakdown 217 to 214 and one independent – with one vacancy, covering 432 Members. After the Swalwell and Gonzales resignations, the remaining open seat is a solidly Republican district in northern California, long held by late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.). He died in January.

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But what happens if the House moves against Cherfilus-McCormick and not Mills? That creates an imbalance between the parties – something which was lost when the potential expulsion of four Members was on the table.

“What about this issue of parity,” yours truly asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

“The issue of parity hasn’t been something that we’ve had a conversation about. We’ve been working through what’s in front of us today and that’s what we’re going to continue to do,” replied Jeffries.

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I followed up.

“But isn’t that a concern, though, if they take action against Cherfilus-McCormick? Her ethics process is further along than Mr. Mills,” I asked.

“The ethics process is still incomplete and we’ll see what the Ethics Committee has to recommend next week,” replied Jeffries.

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That’s in reference to the upcoming ethics panel meeting, recommending punishment for the Florida Democrat.

It was one thing if the House may have bounced four Members, two Republicans and two Democrats, all at once. But it’s dicier now that Gonzales and Swalwell stepped aside. It’s further complicated considering the uneven status of the ethics inquiries regarding Cherfilus-McCormick and Mills.

It seems that Congress is now in a period of establishing new precedents on a regular basis. A record-breaking government shutdown – only superseded by another record-breaking government shutdown. In addition, the House is experiencing a dramatic increase in the raw number of “censures” which it doles out to Members. Censure is the second-highest mode of punishment in the House, just below expulsion.

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The House censured late Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) in late 2010. Prior to that, the House last reprimanded late Reps. Gerry Studds (D-Mass.) and Daniel Crane (R-Ill.) in 1983. But since 2021, the House has censured five Members: Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) – when he served in the House – Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), former Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Al Green (D-Texas).

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) recently characterized the censure explosion as the “political” weaponization of the ethics process.

It’s possible the House might not take any immediate action regarding Cherfilus-McCormick and Mills. Lawmakers from both sides may be more willing to expel one of their own – and maybe take one for the team on their side – if a similar outcome is guaranteed across the aisle.

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With such a tight majority, Republicans may not want to cede power to Democrats if the House expels a GOP Member as they try to cling to the majority. By the same token, it’s doubtful Democrats are willing to absorb a hit when they are within sneezing distance of the majority – if they don’t see a political equilibrium and document consequences for the Republican majority.

Moreover, tracking where the votes lie for disciplinary action is nearly impossible. What further complicates this is whether any expulsion motion actually comes to a true, up/down vote. There are often motions “to table” or kill any resolution to impose discipline against a Member. The same with motions “to refer” or dispatch allegations against a Member to the Ethics Committee for additional scrutiny. For instance, the Ethics panel is all but done probing Cherfilus-McCormick and is investigating Mills. So it’s unclear what would happen with any possible motion “to refer.”

And let’s be frank: some lawmakers either really want to be on the record voting to discipline one of their colleagues or want no part of it at all. Resolutions to sit in judgment of a colleague is one of the hardest votes lawmakers take. Right up with a vote to go to war. That’s why some prefer the political fig leaf of a “motion to refer” or “motion to table” to an actual up/down vote to punish one of their own.

So this could have been “expulsion week” on Capitol Hill. It’s certainly “resignation week.” And if there’s no other disciplinary action, some lawmakers will be resigned to that outcome.