Longtime Democrat Rep. Losing Grip On Key Seat

Democrats’ own internal polling has delivered a striking result in one of Ohio’s most closely watched congressional races, showing longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur locked in a dead heat with Republican challenger Derek Merrin.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s latest survey puts Kaptur and Merrin at exactly 48% each in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District.

Just 4% of likely voters remain undecided with the November election approaching.

The numbers underscore just how competitive the contest has become following Ohio’s mid-decade redistricting, which changed the political makeup of the district Kaptur is fighting to retain.

But another result buried inside the Democrats’ own polling makes the tie particularly notable.

President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at just 35% in the district, while 54% disapprove — a 19-point negative gap, according to the DCCC’s Sept. 29 memo.

Yet Republican Derek Merrin is still running even with the Democratic incumbent.

The DCCC says Trump carried the current district by 11 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.

Despite Trump’s current approval numbers in the Democratic survey, Merrin still captures 48% against Kaptur.

The DCCC emphasized several numbers it views as encouraging for the incumbent.

According to the committee, Kaptur has consolidated 95% of Democratic voters and is leading among independents, although the memo did not disclose the precise breakdown of independent support.

The committee also said Kaptur is running ahead of both Democratic statewide candidates in the district.

It did not identify those candidates or provide their polling numbers in the memo.

Democrats portrayed the tied race as evidence that Kaptur continues to outperform the underlying political environment of her district, pointing to her record and campaign emphasis on lowering costs and representing Northwest Ohio.

The DCCC also sought to blame Republicans for rising household expenses, citing costs including groceries, gasoline, health care and utility bills.

Those arguments represent the Democratic committee’s characterization of the political environment rather than independent findings from the poll.

And despite the DCCC’s upbeat assessment of Kaptur’s position, its own headline number remains unmistakably close.

Kaptur: 48%.

Merrin: 48%.

Undecided: 4%.

Neither candidate has broken the 50% mark, and the difference between them is zero.

The survey was conducted by the DCCC Analytics Department from Sept. 22 through Sept. 23 among 481 likely general-election voters in Ohio’s 9th District.

Respondents were contacted through phone and text-to-web interviews.

The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

That means the survey should be viewed as a snapshot rather than evidence that either candidate holds a measurable lead.

But with the Democratic Party’s own polling showing its incumbent tied with Merrin, Ohio’s 9th District remains a closely contested battleground heading into the final stretch before November.