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US eyes seizing Iran’s oil lifeline — but it may not cripple Tehran
U.S. officials and analysts are weighing whether seizing Iran’s main oil export hub could deal a crippling financial blow — but experts warn the high-risk move may not shut off Tehran’s revenue as quickly or completely as expected.
Analysts say U.S. planners face a high-stakes decision: whether seizing Kharg Island would actually disrupt Iran’s oil revenue or leave key export flows intact while exposing American forces to sustained attack. Options under discussion range from interdicting tankers at sea to striking export infrastructure from the air, approaches some argue could pressure Tehran’s finances without putting troops on the ground.
“There’s a big debate going on right now,” R.P. Newman, Marine veteran and counterterrorism analyst, told Fox News Digital.
Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it one of the most strategically significant energy nodes in the region and a central pressure point for any effort to economically squeeze Tehran.
“We certainly have the ability, military wise, to take it,” said R.P. Newman, a Marine veteran and counter-terrorism analyst.
Some analysts argue that taking Kharg could deliver an immediate economic shock, cutting off the regime’s primary source of oil revenue and potentially giving Washington leverage in broader negotiations.
But such an operation would not be simple.
“It would take thousands to do that,” he said.
U.S. forces already have struck the island hitting more than 90 Iranian military targets, including missile and naval mine facilities, earlier in March while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure, leaving export operations largely intact.
Retired Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, said the same objective could be achieved without putting U.S. forces on the island.
“You could achieve that desired outcome just by constraining the flow that comes out of Kharg after it gets outside the Gulf,” Donegan said.
“You could stop every ship that comes out,” he added.
Robbins said the U.S. could also disable Kharg’s export capability with air power rather than seizing it outright.
An influx of thousands of troops from Marine expeditionary units and the Army’s 82nd airborne division has raised speculation that a ground operation could be on the way.
But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday U.S. operations could wrap in “weeks, not months” and without ground troops.
“We are ahead of schedule on most of (the objectives), and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any,” Rubio told reporters during a trip to Paris for a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers.
Even if U.S. forces were able to seize the island, some analysts warn the economic impact would not be immediate.
“The desired full economic effect of taking Kharg Island is going to be a delayed effect if you don’t also seize underway tankers,” said Gregory Brew, analyst at the Eurasia Group, said.
Any operation targeting Kharg would strike at one of Iran’s most critical economic assets.
“Sales of petroleum products have generally covered between 30 and 40% of the official state budget,” Brew said. “There’s no question the state budget will take a significant hit.”
But a loss of oil revenue would not necessarily cripple the regime’s core power structure.
“The IRGC has what is in effect a shadow budget,” Brew said. “If anything, its relative position may improve.”
That means that while the government’s official budget would shrink, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could retain a larger share of the country’s remaining resources through its independent revenue streams.
Even if Kharg were taken offline, Iran would retain other ways to keep exports flowing.
“Iran does have four other export facilities,” Brew said.
Its terminal at Jask, Iran, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, “can handle around one-fifth of the volume of oil that can be exported from Kharg.”
“Stopping completely would require interdicting that traffic as well,” Brew added.
That means any effort to fully choke off Iran’s oil exports would likely extend beyond Kharg, requiring action against multiple export routes and facilities.
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Sustaining the island would prove difficult as well, putting U.S. forces on a sea-locked target within range of Iranian drones, rockets and missiles from the mainland.
“Any deployment to the island will be vulnerable to Iranian counterattack,” Brew said.
“They would be a very small force, very exposed,” said James Robbins, dean of the Institute of World Politics and a former adviser to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Beyond the initial assault, sustaining forces on the island would present additional challenges.
“Once the guys are on the ground, then you have to support them and that would be extremely hard,” Robbins said.
Some analysts also question what a successful seizure would ultimately achieve.
“To what end would be the question,” Robbins said. “I don’t see an endgame to that, to seizing Kharg.”
President Donald Trump has publicly announced a reprieve on strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6, citing “progress” in negotiations with Iran.
But Iranian officials have accused the president of “psychological warfare” and expressed skepticism.
Iran already has begun preparing for a potential Kharg invasion, moving additional forces, bolstering air defenses and laying mines and other traps around the island, including along potential landing areas, sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.
The Pentagon and the Iranian mission to the United Nations could not immediately be reached for comment.
A Florida fisherman changed his luck recently in a big way.
Captain Jose Rodriguez Jr. of Cudjoe Key, Florida, takes clients out four to five times a week on a Florida Keys fishing charter to reel in trophy fish. But he’d never come close to catching a monster 500-pound swordfish.
On Feb. 18, Rodriguez, along with a Pennsylvania family, landed a giant 480-pound swordfish, one of the largest of its kind caught in the Keys in recent years.
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“It was definitely a fight and a struggle,” Rodriguez, who helps run the family business, Above & Below Fishing Adventures, told Fox News Digital in an interview.
“We fought the fish for five hours, and it took us at least another half hour to control the fish on the side of the boat before we could pull it over the side,” he said.
The Florida Keys are known for drawing in large species like swordfish, but landing one of this size requires specialized deep-sea techniques and is considered quite rare.
“Everyone’s in search of a nickel, which is 500 pounds, but it rarely happens in the Keys,” said Rodriguez, 25.
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When he started the fishing trip, it seemed like a “normal” day, he said. A Pennsylvania couple had chartered the boat to celebrate their son’s high school graduation.
As Rodriguez first spotted the swordfish, he knew it was large, but he wasn’t sure how massive it would be.
“Then my mate and I got a really good eye on it, and we basically sealed the deal,” he said.
At first, the Pennsylvania family didn’t realize the importance of what was happening, he said. But the two children aboard were big supporters.
Once the swordfish was caught, there was plenty of work to be done. For starters, there was no simple way to store a fish that huge.
“A fish that big actually lies on the back deck with ice bags on top of it with towels,” Rodriguez said. “There’s really no other spot” for it.
Then he and his mate sprayed it with saltwater to bring the core temperature down.
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When they were ready to filet the fish, they completed the process on the boat.
They didn’t have a crane to lift the fish.
“Not everyone’s prepared to catch a 500-pound fish,” the captain said.
Only a few such accomplishments have been documented in the last decade, according to available material.
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In 2019, Captain Nick Stanczyk landed a legendary 757.8-pound broadbill off Islamorada, marking one of the largest recreational swordfish ever caught in the U.S., as noted by Pelagic Gear.
In 2018, Patrick Vincent, along with Captain Stanczyk, caught a massive 600-pound swordfish off Islamorada, as Wild Open Spaces reported.
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In terms of Rodriguez’s catch, there were about 50–70 people in his community who came to admire the fish.
“We had well over 200 pounds of meat to use,” he said.
The Pennsylvania family only took 20-30 pounds of it.
They decided to donate the rest of the fish to people in the town.
“The whole community was eating swordfish that day,” Rodriguez said, chuckling.
When asked if he felt like a local celebrity, he said, “Almost, yeah. Everybody knows about it. … It’s just about being in the right place at the right time, and it ended up happening to me.”
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Rogan, Dave Smith speak about how Trump’s Iran war broke his coalition, could hand country right back to Dems
Podcaster Joe Rogan spoke with comedian and libertarian podcaster Dave Smith Thursday about how the historic coalition President Donald Trump united has fractured after broken promises on policy.
Over the past year, numerous podcasters who gave friendly interviews with Trump or outright endorsed him have since called out his administration, accusing it of betraying key policy promises to Trump’s voters.
Smith, who is Jewish, has been a frequent critic of Israel and its influence on American foreign policy.
The comedian marveled in particular at how, after decades of wars in the Middle East that have not benefited Americans, the very presidential candidate who ran on preventing similar conflicts would be the one to start a new one with Iran.
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“That was the one thing that he was saying that was so promising to so many people that were independent that were on the fence,” Rogan recalled.
“They’re like, ‘This guy wants no wars. All right. Look, he wants closing the border, which I think is a great idea. He wants no wars. That’s enough. Let’s go.’”
Smith, recalling how he endorsed Trump in the past, said the Democratic alternative was “the party who bragged about, first off, insane woke s— like poisoning the minds of children in a really grotesque and abusive way.
“They gave us open borders, flooding the country with people. They gave us all types of COVID tyranny based on pseudoscience. They gave us the most reckless foreign policy in American history, which was this proxy war on Russia’s border.”
The problem, he said, is that Trump squandering the historic coalition and mandate he won will deliver the country right back to the Democrats all over again.
“After ’24, this coalition came together where Donald Trump, for the first time ever, wins the popular vote, wins every single swing state, and really more remarkably, won the youth and the culture,” Smith recalled, arguing Trump went from a cultural pariah to becoming a uniting figure.
“That whole coalition has been destroyed over this war,” he said. “And now he’s going to hand the country right back over to these Democrats who we’ve been fighting so hard. All for what? All for a war that Netanyahu wanted?”
When Fox News Digital contacted the White House, a spokesman replied, “What matters most to the American people is having a commander in chief who takes decisive action to eliminate threats and keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump is doing with the ongoing successful Operation Epic Fury.
“President Trump campaigned proudly on his promise to deny the Iranian regime the ability to develop a nuclear weapon, which is what this noble operation is seeking to accomplish. The President does not make these incredibly important national security decisions based on fluid opinion polls, but on the best interest of the American people.”
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Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss eligible for sixth college season after NCAA’s appeal denied by judge
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is eligible for a sixth season of college football after a Mississippi judge denied an NCAA appeal.
The NCAA formally rejected his request for a sixth year of eligibility Jan. 9 because he and his team could not provide evidence he had an “incapacitating injury or illness” when he did not play for Division II Ferris State in 2022 because of apparent respiratory issues.
Chambliss then sued the NCAA, and a judge ruled last month that the NCAA “operated in bad faith” by trying to keep Chambliss ineligible for next season, a decision the NCAA appealed.
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The NCAA argued Chambliss “exhausted his eligibility” to play Division I football since he had already played four seasons in a five-year period.
Ole Miss came within a quarter of advancing to the College Football Playoff championship game, losing a 31-27 thriller to Miami in the Fiesta Bowl Jan. 8.
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The Rebels’ postseason was mired in controversy when Lane Kiffin opted to take the LSU head coaching job. Athletic director Keith Carter said Kiffin would not be able to coach the team in the playoffs if he left, resulting in a he-said, he-said between Kiffin and players about how the breakup went down in the locker room.
However, several coaches, including offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr., went back and forth between LSU and Ole Miss for the playoff games.
The Rebels and Tigers will meet in Week 3 in Oxford.
Fox News’ Jackson Thompson contributed to this report.
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