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US eyes seizing Iran’s oil lifeline — but it may not cripple Tehran
U.S. officials and analysts are weighing whether seizing Iran’s main oil export hub could deal a crippling financial blow — but experts warn the high-risk move may not shut off Tehran’s revenue as quickly or completely as expected.
Analysts say U.S. planners face a high-stakes decision: whether seizing Kharg Island would actually disrupt Iran’s oil revenue or leave key export flows intact while exposing American forces to sustained attack. Options under discussion range from interdicting tankers at sea to striking export infrastructure from the air, approaches some argue could pressure Tehran’s finances without putting troops on the ground.
“There’s a big debate going on right now,” R.P. Newman, Marine veteran and counterterrorism analyst, told Fox News Digital.
Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it one of the most strategically significant energy nodes in the region and a central pressure point for any effort to economically squeeze Tehran.
“We certainly have the ability, military wise, to take it,” said R.P. Newman, a Marine veteran and counter-terrorism analyst.
Some analysts argue that taking Kharg could deliver an immediate economic shock, cutting off the regime’s primary source of oil revenue and potentially giving Washington leverage in broader negotiations.
But such an operation would not be simple.
“It would take thousands to do that,” he said.
U.S. forces already have struck the island hitting more than 90 Iranian military targets, including missile and naval mine facilities, earlier in March while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure, leaving export operations largely intact.
Retired Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, said the same objective could be achieved without putting U.S. forces on the island.
“You could achieve that desired outcome just by constraining the flow that comes out of Kharg after it gets outside the Gulf,” Donegan said.
“You could stop every ship that comes out,” he added.
Robbins said the U.S. could also disable Kharg’s export capability with air power rather than seizing it outright.
An influx of thousands of troops from Marine expeditionary units and the Army’s 82nd airborne division has raised speculation that a ground operation could be on the way.
But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday U.S. operations could wrap in “weeks, not months” and without ground troops.
“We are ahead of schedule on most of (the objectives), and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any,” Rubio told reporters during a trip to Paris for a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers.
Even if U.S. forces were able to seize the island, some analysts warn the economic impact would not be immediate.
“The desired full economic effect of taking Kharg Island is going to be a delayed effect if you don’t also seize underway tankers,” said Gregory Brew, analyst at the Eurasia Group, said.
Any operation targeting Kharg would strike at one of Iran’s most critical economic assets.
“Sales of petroleum products have generally covered between 30 and 40% of the official state budget,” Brew said. “There’s no question the state budget will take a significant hit.”
But a loss of oil revenue would not necessarily cripple the regime’s core power structure.
“The IRGC has what is in effect a shadow budget,” Brew said. “If anything, its relative position may improve.”
That means that while the government’s official budget would shrink, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could retain a larger share of the country’s remaining resources through its independent revenue streams.
Even if Kharg were taken offline, Iran would retain other ways to keep exports flowing.
“Iran does have four other export facilities,” Brew said.
Its terminal at Jask, Iran, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, “can handle around one-fifth of the volume of oil that can be exported from Kharg.”
“Stopping completely would require interdicting that traffic as well,” Brew added.
That means any effort to fully choke off Iran’s oil exports would likely extend beyond Kharg, requiring action against multiple export routes and facilities.
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Sustaining the island would prove difficult as well, putting U.S. forces on a sea-locked target within range of Iranian drones, rockets and missiles from the mainland.
“Any deployment to the island will be vulnerable to Iranian counterattack,” Brew said.
“They would be a very small force, very exposed,” said James Robbins, dean of the Institute of World Politics and a former adviser to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Beyond the initial assault, sustaining forces on the island would present additional challenges.
“Once the guys are on the ground, then you have to support them and that would be extremely hard,” Robbins said.
Some analysts also question what a successful seizure would ultimately achieve.
“To what end would be the question,” Robbins said. “I don’t see an endgame to that, to seizing Kharg.”
President Donald Trump has publicly announced a reprieve on strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6, citing “progress” in negotiations with Iran.
But Iranian officials have accused the president of “psychological warfare” and expressed skepticism.
Iran already has begun preparing for a potential Kharg invasion, moving additional forces, bolstering air defenses and laying mines and other traps around the island, including along potential landing areas, sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.
The Pentagon and the Iranian mission to the United Nations could not immediately be reached for comment.
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Mamdani endorses planned NYC ‘No Kings’ rally, derides ICE as ‘rogue agency’
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said Friday that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) should be abolished, blasting the federal agency as “rogue” and “reckless” as questions mount over the city’s handling of illegal immigration following the fatal subway killing of an elderly veteran.
During a news conference announcing new street safety efforts, the mayor said he has spoken to President Donald Trump about immigration enforcement operations in the city, claiming ICE a “rogue agency.”
“We’re making clear that no one is above the law in this city, that everyone has to follow the rule of law,” Mamdani said. “I have made clear to the president, both in our private conversations and our public conversations, about the fact that I believe that ICE is a rogue agency.”
Mamdani added that he believes ICE is “reckless” and “delivers nothing toward the furthering of the cause of public safety.”
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“I’ve also been public about my belief that ICE is an entity that should be abolished, and that is critically important in our city, where we’ve seen too many New Yorkers living in fear of even going to what would otherwise be routine immigration check ins,” he said. “… What we’ve had in the interim is a federal entity that has been operating with a level of impunity, and that has to come to an end.”
The mayor went on to support protests against the Trump administration, endorsing the “No Kings NYC” protest planned for Saturday in Manhattan.
“I think that rallies are an incredibly effective way for New Yorkers to both organize together and make it clear what their vision is for the city, for the state, for this country,” Mamdani said. “I think that what we’ve seen is that there’s an attempt to make many in our city feel as if they are alone, when they believe that ICE has no place in our city, when they believe that every single New Yorker who lives in this city belongs in this city, and should be made to feel as if such.
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“What these rallies are — are also an opportunity to realize that you are not in the minority when you have those beliefs. You are, in fact, one of a growing coalition of people who want to see a shred of decency, dignity and humanity come back to our city and our country’s politics.”
Reporters did not question Mamdani about the recent murder of 83-year-old Air Force veteran Richard Williams, who died after he was allegedly shoved onto New York City subway tracks by an illegal immigrant from Honduras. Mamdani has yet to publicly comment on the killing.
When asked if Honduran national Bairon Posada-Hernandez, 34, would be turned over to ICE, the mayor’s office referred Fox News to the Department of Corrections (DOC).
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A DOC spokesperson said the agency processes ICE detainers “consistent with local law,” which limits cooperation.
Under city law, ICE is only notified if there is a detainer backed by a judicial warrant (I-200 or I-205), and the person has a qualifying recent conviction for a violent or serious crime.
It is unclear if ICE will be notified or take custody of Posada-Hernandez, who has been deported from the U.S. four times, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
DHS officials have asked New York City to cooperate, saying, “Posada-Hernandez is a serial criminal and four-time deported illegal alien who NEVER should have been able to walk our streets and harm innocent Americans. He is now facing murder charges. We are calling on New York sanctuary politicians to not release this murderer. Please join us in praying for Mr. Williams’ family, friends, and loved ones.”
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Johnson accuses Democrats of taking government hostage over ‘crazy’ immigration agenda
House Speaker Mike Johnson chastised congressional Democrats Friday, saying Republicans will not be part of any effort to reopen America’s borders and stop the deportation of criminal illegal immigrants.
Johnson held a two-hour conference call with House Republicans Friday, saying they were all “united” in the party’s position to fully fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to end the partial government shutdown that has injected chaos into air travel.
“They have taken hostage the funding processes of government so that they can impose their radical agenda on the American people,” Johnson told reporters of Senate Democrats.
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“The Senate Democrats have foisted upon this appropriations process their radical, crazy agenda,” he added. “We call it crazy because that’s what it is. They want to reopen the borders, and they want to stop the deportation of dangerous criminal illegal aliens. We have to do these basic functions of government.”
On Friday, the Senate advanced a bill to fund much of DHS, except for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Border Patrol.
“The only thing standing between ending this chaos or not are House Republicans,” Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said. “There’s a bipartisan bill that emerged from the Senate with uniform support, and it should be brought to the floor immediately so we can pay TSA agents, so we can end the chaos at airports across the country and stop inconveniencing millions of Americans.”
Democrats have refused to fully fund DHS unless Republicans agree to new restrictions on federal immigration authorities.
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“This gambit that was done last night is a joke,” Johnson said of the bill. “It is unconscionable to me that the Democrats would force some sort of negotiation at three o’clock in the morning and try to hoist this upon the American people and then get on their jets and go home for their holiday and pretend and think that we’re going to go along with that.”
Lawmakers have come under increased pressure to strike a deal to pay Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents after many have resigned and lines at airports across the country have swelled daily because of staffing issues.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to pay TSA agents despite Congress having not appropriated the funds for it.
Johnson said Republicans will put forward a continuing resolution for all agencies under DHS to keep operating at their current funding levels.
“The reason that we can’t accept this ridiculousness is because we’re not going to risk not funding the agencies that keep the American people safe,” he said.
The shutdown began in February, weeks after federal agents shot and killed two people in separate incidents during immigration raids in Minnesota. Democrats have demanded changes to ICE and DHS and have refused to fund the agencies.
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‘Dukes of Hazzard’ star John Schneider says Democrats secretly rely on Trump policies they publicly attack
“Dukes of Hazzard” star John Schneider took aim at Democrats, accusing them of rejecting President Donald Trump’s ideas even as they benefit from them.
Schneider slammed Democrats as “nothing but an embarrassment” during Thursday’s episode of his podcast, “Drinks with Dee Dee and John.”
Schneider and his wife, Dee Dee Sorvino, spoke at length about the ongoing war in Iran and touched on the State of the Union address.
“As my grandmother would say, ‘They continue to throw the baby out with the bathwater,’” he said. “They refuse to even consider that President Trump might have a good idea, that he might have just done something noble. He might have just done something that is for the good of everybody.
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“And here’s the ‘flaw in the slaw,’ as old Roscoe would say. All of these amazing things that President Trump and his Cabinet are doing to keep the world safe, to keep America great, to do all that. The Democrats are also benefiting from that.”
He criticized those who decline to help but still reap the benefits, saying, “That’s not how I was raised.”
Schneider also compared the effect of Trump’s policies to neighbors building a fence, arguing cooperation ultimately helps everyone.
“If you’ve got a property line between you and your neighbor and you wanna put up a fence, then what you do is you go over to your neighbor. You say, ‘Hey Charlie, I’m thinking about putting up a fence. Do you wanna split it with me? Or do you want to look at the back of the fence? What do you wanna do here?'”
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Schneider said the better choice would be to work together.
“Let’s split it. Let’s make a really nice fence,” he said, adding that refusing to share the effort “is not being neighborly.
“You’re supposed to help one another.”
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Schneider has been outspoken about his political beliefs after Trump took office. The actor suspected he was being blacklisted by Hollywood after being open about voting for Trump in the 2016 election.
“People talk about Hollywood as if it has autonomy,” he previously told Fox News Digital. “Hollywood is a line item on a billionaire globalist spreadsheet, really. So, Hollywood has to basically do what they’re told.
“I know a lot of people in Hollywood, and I don’t really believe that they are naïve enough to believe a lot of the things that they put forth as truth,” he added. “But, as a very old song used to say, ‘They owe their soul to the company store.’”
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