The Minnesota Timberwolves have a chance to put their foot on the Denver Nuggets‘ throat when they host Game 4 Saturday in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at the Target Center at 8:30 p.m. ET. Minnesota beat the brakes off Denver 113-96 in Game 3 Thursday to take a 2-1 series lead.

Now, both teams have -110 odds to win this series at DraftKings. The T-Wolves are slight home underdogs — +1.5 on the spread and +102 on the money line — and the total is 229.5.

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In an unexpected twist, the Timberwolves have made Nuggets’ three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic seem mortal. Although Jokic is still getting his numbers, he’s been less efficient. The Joker is shooting just 40.0% from the field and 20.8% from behind the arc with a -6 net rating.

Denver’s other major concern is the health of its only good defensive player, forward Aaron Gordon, who missed Game 3 and is “questionable” for Saturday. Even if Gordon plays Game 4, how effective will he be? And does it matter anyway? That’s what I’m here to discuss.

I’m expecting a Jokic bounce-back game Saturday. He’s just too good. Nikola has averaged a triple-double in three of his last four NBA playoffs, and he usually balls up T-Wolves C Rudy Gobert.

However, this is a bad matchup for the Nuggets because they need PG Jamal Murray to play like an All-Star, and the Timberwolves have two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels.

Murray is averaging 25.3 points per game in this series, but he is shooting 35.9% from the field and 22.2% from 3-point range. That’s just not going to cut it. And it won’t get easier for him either because McDaniels is picking Murray up full-court.

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Meanwhile, with or without Gordon, Denver has a terrible defense. Sure, having Jokic gives the Nuggets a chance to beat anyone, but you can’t win a title with the 21st-ranked defensive efficiency in the Association.

Also, Minnesota is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, and role players shoot better at home. The T-Wolves are sixth in 3-point shooting percentage and allow the fewest 3-pointers per game on defense.

Lastly, this will be a contrarian bet with the public most likely backing Denver because people will think, “The Nuggets won’t go down 3-1 in this series. They are the better team with the best player in the world.”

Well, I’m here to tell you those people are wrong, and the Timberwolves are winning Game 4.

Prediction: Timberwolves 117, Nuggets 110

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