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Destroy the regime’s power without occupying Iran: A smarter war plan

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The U.S.-Iran war has been underway for a month now. It is increasingly difficult to distinguish real strategic and military expertise from politicized opinion, speculation and narrative. Too many people jump immediately from where we are today to a full-scale ground invasion. They assume the only option is for U.S. forces to seize Tehran, secure nuclear material by force, destroy a supposed million-man army, and then get pulled into another decades-long nation-building effort or fight a Maoist-style insurgency. That is not analysis. That is shallow thinking rooted in outdated and often biased mental models of war.

President Trump has signaled a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, now extended to April 6. We are days into that timeline. But the real question is not what has been done. The real question is what options remain.

It is a given that CENTCOM and Israel will continue systematic attacks on Iran’s military system. Iran entered this war with thousands of ballistic missiles, hundreds of launchers, a dispersed drone enterprise, a layered naval capability in the Gulf, remnants of a nuclear enrichment program, and a military industrial base built for redundancy and survivability. That system is being destroyed. But it is not yet eliminated.

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At the same time, Israel is targeting something far more important than just military capability. It is targeting the regime’s ability to rule once the bombs stop falling. That means hunting and eliminating political and military leadership. It means degrading the Basij, the regime’s internal enforcement arm. It means targeting checkpoints, intelligence nodes and internal security infrastructure.

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This is not just tactical action. This is strategic pressure applied simultaneously against Iran’s means and its will. Its ability to fight and its ability to govern are being targeted at the same time. That is how you coerce behavior change without occupying a capital.

It is important to anchor any discussion in the stated strategic objectives. As articulated by senior U.S. leaders, the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and its ability to produce more, dismantle its navy and its ability to threaten global shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

While regime change has been mentioned and questions have been raised about whether it would be good or bad, it is not the declared U.S. objective. Behavior change is. The current regime has been given pathways, including diplomatic proposals, to alter its course. That matters because it shapes the options available. This is not about occupying Tehran. It is about paralyzing the regime, destroying its capabilities, and forcing it to accept new terms.

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If the regime collapses under the combined weight of military pressure and its own economic fragility, the United States can still achieve its objectives in a fundamentally different strategic environment. But regime collapse is not required to succeed.

From here, the range of options expands, not contracts.

One option is to strike the regime’s economic center of gravity. Kharg Island handles roughly 85 to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, often between 1.5 and 2 million barrels per day. That oil is the regime’s primary source of hard currency. Seize it, disable it, or destroy export capacity, and you do not just hurt the economy. You paralyze the regime’s ability to fund its military, sustain patronage networks, and maintain internal control.

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This matters because the regime has already shown signs of fragility under economic pressure. The January 2026 protests were driven by inflation, banking instability, and the inability to provide basic services, including severe water shortages affecting millions in Tehran. There were even discussions about relocating the capital due to an inability to provide potable water. The regime responded with mass violence, killing over 32,000 civilians in one of the most brutal crackdowns in its modern history. Therefore, economic pressure is not theoretical. It has already brought the regime close to the edge.

Another option is to target the national power grid. Iran’s electricity system is concentrated around major urban hubs. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages across entire regions. Tehran goes dark.

The regime would be in immediate trouble without power. Command and control, surveillance, communications, and internal security coordination all depend on it. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages without total destruction of infrastructure. The U.S. has demonstrated that capability in past conflicts.

Cyber operations expand this further. Iran has repeatedly shut down internet access to control its population. That capability can be reversed. Disrupt regime command networks while enabling connectivity for the population through external systems. Information becomes a weapon. Control of narrative, coordination, and awareness shifts away from the regime.

The Strait of Hormuz remains decisive terrain. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, about 20 million barrels per day, flows through it. Iran’s strategy has long been to threaten and manipulate that flow.

One option is to move from deterrence to control. Seize or neutralize key islands. Experts have long identified Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands as critical terrain controlling access to the Strait. Qeshm Island, sitting along the northern edge, hosts IRGC naval facilities, missile systems, and surveillance infrastructure. These positions enable Iran’s anti-ship missile coverage, fast attack craft operations, and maritime coercion. Controlling or neutralizing these islands would fundamentally alter Iran’s ability to contest the Strait.

Iran has also built a “toll booth” system in the Strait. The IRGC has created a de facto system where ships must be approved, routed through Iranian-influenced lanes, and in some cases pay millions for safe passage. Reports indicate fees reaching up to $2 million per tanker, selective approval based on political alignment, and designated transit corridors near Larak Island under regime control.

The United States and Israel have the capability to systematically dismantle this system. Target the leadership directing it. Destroy the coastal radar, ISR nodes and command centers enabling it. Eliminate the fast attack craft, drones, and missile batteries enforcing it. Break the system, and you break Iran’s ability to turn a global chokepoint into a regime-controlled revenue and coercion mechanism.

A related option is to interdict Iranian oil exports at sea. Iran exports roughly 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day, much of it through sanctions evasion networks. Stop and divert tankers. Enforce inspections and seizures at scale. This is already happening at a limited level. Scaling it drives regime revenue toward zero. No revenue means no missiles, no proxies, no repression, no functioning state.

INSIDE IRAN’S MILITARY: MISSILES, MILITIAS AND A FORCE BUILT FOR SURVIVAL

Other options shift inward. Iran’s population is over 85 million, young, urban, and repeatedly discontent. Available polling, protest patterns, and observable unrest all suggest that well over 50 percent of the population opposes the regime, and possibly much higher. This is not a solid or stable base of power. The January 2026 protests are a clear signal of that underlying pressure.

Until now, civilians have largely been told to shelter. That could change. Messaging, corridors, and psychological operations could begin to separate the population from the regime’s control mechanisms.

That can be paired with support to internal resistance. Air resupply of weapons, communications, and intelligence directly to resistance groups that may or may not exist. Iran has multiple internal fault lines, ethnic, political, and regional, that have historically produced opposition and unrest. When external pressure aligns with internal resistance, regimes fracture faster, or at least the pressure on the regime increases significantly.

At the same time, strikes can continue expanding beyond traditional military targets. The regime’s control system is a network: leadership, IRGC headquarters, Basij units, police, intelligence services, and repression infrastructure. Target those nodes, and you accelerate the erosion of centralized authority.

History shows pressure creates fractures. Military leaders hedge. Intelligence services fracture. Political elites reposition. Defections occur. Working with defectors multiplies effects far beyond what strikes alone can achieve.

There is also much we do not know. We do not have full visibility into where the regime is strongest or weakest. But indicators matter. Reports of attempts to expand mobilization, including lowering recruitment thresholds to as young as twelve, suggest stress. That is not the behavior of a confident regime.

IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

None of these options exist in isolation. They can be combined.

Destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and production capacity. Dismantle its navy. Continue degrading its nuclear program. Deny its ability to project power beyond its borders. At the same time, paralyze decision-making by targeting leadership and command systems. Apply pressure across military, economic, informational, and political domains simultaneously.

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Attack the regime’s means and its will at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously. The objective is to impose multiple dilemmas, more than the regime can handle. Force it into reactive survival. Stretch its decision cycles. Overwhelm its ability to coordinate and control.

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War is not a checklist. It is the alignment of ends, ways, and means under conditions of uncertainty. Options can be sequenced, layered, or applied simultaneously.

The United States has not run out of options. It has plenty it has not used, many that no one is talking about or that none of us can fully imagine without access to far more than what exists in the public domain, but could.

Lastly, be careful of analysts who speak in certainties or rely on surface analogies. Iran is not Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. It is not 1968, 2002, or 2003. The context of each is fundamentally different. The political objectives, from regime behavior change to regime survival, are different. Past wars involved nation building, attempts to create democracy, prolonged fights against insurgencies, and enemies who enjoyed sanctuary outside the operating environment. Those are not the same conditions or objectives at play here. The geography, technology, intelligence and regional dynamics are different. The options available today are far broader and more precise against the objectives.

We know a lot about what has been struck. We do not fully know what remains. More importantly, we do not know what decisions will be made next by either side. That uncertainty is not a flaw in analysis. It is the nature of war.

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Trump Issues Chilling Ultimatum

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Trump Issues Chilling Ultimatum

President Donald Trump put Iran on notice before the United Nations General Assembly Tuesday, presenting Tehran with two dramatically different paths: reach an agreement with the United States or risk another devastating round of American military action.

Speaking before world leaders in New York, Trump said he is approaching a consequential decision over the future of the conflict with Iran.

“I have a big decision to make,” Trump said. “Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country?”

The alternative Trump raised was unmistakably severe.

The president said he could instead use American military power to “annihilate the Islamic Republic,” delivering one of his most direct warnings to Tehran since the United States began its military campaign earlier this year.

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Trump’s message was not simply a threat of additional sanctions or diplomatic isolation. He made clear that renewed military action remains on the table if negotiations fail.

At the same time, Trump maintained that diplomacy could still produce an agreement.

He predicted that a deal with Iran could potentially emerge after the November 3 midterm elections, while insisting that domestic political considerations are not dictating his decisions.

The remarks came after months of direct military confrontation and escalating economic pressure against Tehran.

Trump has repeatedly maintained that Iran will never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon, a position he again emphasized before the United Nations.

The White House characterized Trump’s broader message as one of confronting threats before they are allowed to grow, with the president telling world leaders that the United States would use its power when necessary to defend its interests.

But Trump also made clear that military force is not the only pressure Washington intends to apply.

He called on governments around the world to further isolate Tehran economically in an effort to force Iranian leaders back to the negotiating table.

The Trump administration has already imposed sweeping sanctions intended to restrict Iran’s access to the international financial system and make it more difficult for Tehran to rebuild military capabilities damaged during the conflict.

Iran, meanwhile, has indicated that it remains open to negotiations while demanding that Washington ease its military and economic pressure.

That leaves enormous differences still separating the two governments.

Among the biggest points of contention are Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile arsenal and control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has repeatedly said Iran cannot be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon.

His administration has also identified Tehran’s missile production, naval capabilities and support for armed groups throughout the Middle East as major security concerns.

The Strait of Hormuz remains another critical flashpoint.

The narrow waterway is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, connecting major Persian Gulf oil producers with global markets.

Disruptions there have pushed energy prices higher and intensified international concern that the conflict could spill further into the global economy.

Trump urged Iran to fully reopen the strait while pointing to American naval operations intended to protect commercial shipping.

He argued that a lasting agreement could ease pressure on oil markets while allowing Iran to begin rebuilding its battered economy.

Oil markets have remained volatile as traders attempt to determine whether diplomacy can prevent another escalation between Washington and Tehran.

But Trump’s address made one point particularly clear: he does not view the current situation as an indefinite stalemate.

The president said he is approaching a decision.

His comments also expanded on remarks made during a recent interview in which he said he would soon determine whether massive attacks against Iran should resume.

Trump has maintained that communication between Washington and Tehran continues and that Iranian officials remain interested in reaching an agreement.

He did not announce a deadline Tuesday for Tehran to accept a deal.

That leaves the timing uncertain — but not the stakes.

Iran can pursue negotiations with Washington and potentially gain an opportunity to rebuild its economy, or it can reject the terms the United States is demanding and risk another major military confrontation.

Trump’s message at the United Nations was built around that stark choice.

Diplomacy remains available.

So does American military power.

And Trump told world leaders that he is preparing to decide which path comes next.

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Popular News Anchor Arrested By ICE

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Popular News Anchor Arrested By ICE

Federal immigration authorities arrested a staffer for a Democratic California lawmaker during a targeted enforcement operation at a Las Vegas airport, setting off a clash between the Department of Homeland Security and the state legislator who employs him.

Ho-Yin Mo, a field representative for Democratic California Assemblywoman Catherine Stefani, was taken into custody at Harry Reid International Airport on September 17.

Mo, a Hong Kong native and former television news anchor, is now facing removal proceedings while Stefani is publicly demanding his release.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, Mo originally entered the United States legally in 2020 but remained beyond the period he was authorized to stay.

“On January 13, 2020, Mo lawfully entered the U.S. on a temporary basis but illegally overstayed his welcome by failing to depart by May 15, 2020,” a DHS spokesperson said.

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The department also directly addressed questions surrounding Mo’s ability to legally work in the United States.

“Work authorization or a pending application do NOT confer legal status in the United States.”

DHS said Mo’s arrest was part of a targeted immigration-enforcement operation at the Las Vegas airport.

The department tied the arrest to a broader Trump administration crackdown on domestic air travel by people it says lack lawful immigration status.

“DHS reversed the horrendous Biden-era policy that allowed aliens in our country illegally to jet around our country,” the department said.

“Under President Trump, DHS will no longer tolerate this. This administration is working diligently to ensure that aliens in our country illegally can no longer fly unless it is out of our country to self-deport.”

But Stefani is pushing back against the federal government’s characterization of her staffer’s situation.

“My message today is simple: I am respectfully calling for Ho Yin Mo’s release as soon as possible,” Stefani said following his detention.

“Ho Yin is a selfless public servant and a valued, legal employee of the California State Legislature serving our San Francisco and Bay Area communities.”

The competing statements highlight an important distinction in the case: Stefani says Mo is legally authorized to work for the California Legislature, while DHS says that employment authorization does not by itself establish lawful immigration status.

Mo’s detention has attracted additional attention because he isn’t an obscure political operative.

Before entering California politics, he was a familiar face to some Bay Area viewers as an anchor and reporter for KTSF Channel 26, a Chinese-language television station.

He later moved into Democratic political organizing.

In 2024, Mo worked as an outreach organizer focused on Asian American and Pacific Islander communities for then-San Francisco Mayor London Breed’s unsuccessful reelection campaign.

His profile apparently made him an attractive political hire.

“When we learned that Mo was available, we immediately saw an opportunity to bring him on board,” Breed spokesman Joe Arellano said at the time. “His visibility through KTSF connects with a broad audience, and his professional background and experience made him a strong fit.”

Mo joined Stefani’s staff in January 2025 as a field representative.

Stefani represents California’s 19th Assembly District, encompassing western San Francisco and northern San Mateo County. Before entering the state Assembly in December 2024, the Democrat served on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors.

Stefani has praised Mo’s work connecting her office with Chinese-American constituents and providing assistance with government services.

“And his work goes far beyond presence. Ho-Yin helps people access affordable healthcare coverage, childcare, and food support. Our whole community eagerly awaits Ho-Yin’s return to his home and his job, where he is loved and adored.”

Federal immigration authorities, however, have taken a different position on the underlying immigration question.

DHS says Mo’s authorized temporary stay expired in May 2020 and maintains that neither a work permit nor a pending immigration application independently gives someone lawful immigration status.

Mo was being held at an immigration detention facility in Nevada while facing removal proceedings that could ultimately result in his deportation to Hong Kong.

His detention also comes as the Trump administration expands immigration-enforcement operations at American airports.

The administration has increasingly targeted visa overstays and other people DHS considers unlawfully present, including some individuals who possess federal work authorization or have pending immigration cases.

That enforcement strategy has generated fierce opposition from immigration advocates and Democratic officials, who argue that people with active immigration cases and work permits should not be swept into detention while those proceedings remain unresolved.

The administration maintains that a pending application or authorization to work does not prevent immigration authorities from enforcing existing removal laws.

Mo’s case now puts that dispute directly inside a Democratic California lawmaker’s office.

A former television journalist who went on to work for two prominent San Francisco Democrats is sitting in federal immigration custody.

His boss says he is a valued employee who should be released.

DHS says he remained in the United States after his authorized stay expired.

And unless his immigration proceedings change that situation, Mo faces the possibility of being removed to Hong Kong.

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Obama Calls It QUITS After Wild Video Goes Viral

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Obama Calls It QUITS After Wild Video Goes Viral

Michelle Obama’s voter organization is taking its 2026 midterm strategy straight into the social media feeds of millions of young Americans.

When We All Vote, the initiative founded by the former first lady, has launched a new “Voting Squad” made up of popular social media creators who will use their enormous online audiences to distribute voter-registration information, election deadlines and issue-focused content ahead of the midterms.

It represents a distinctly modern approach to voter outreach: instead of relying primarily on television commercials, political mailers or traditional campaign operations, election messaging will appear alongside the videos and posts millions of young Americans already consume every day.

When We All Vote describes the Voting Squad as a nonpartisan network, with participating creators using their own personalities, voices and established platforms to reach younger voters.

And its potential reach is enormous.

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According to the organization, creators participating in the campaign collectively reach more than 20 million people across social media.

Among them is Brandon Edelman, better known online as Bran Flakezz, whose TikTok following exceeds 1.4 million.

The campaign also includes physician and “medical mythbuster” Joel Bervell, “plant enthusiast” Paige Tailyn and influencer Leon Ondieki, who has approximately 4.5 million TikTok followers.

Rather than asking young voters to seek out election information themselves, the strategy effectively brings that information directly into their existing social-media feeds.

Creators are expected to distribute state-specific election dates and deadlines, explain how issues important to younger voters appear on ballots and direct followers toward fact-checked voting resources.

When We All Vote argues that confusion and a lack of reliable election information remain major obstacles to Gen Z participation.

“At a time when lack of accurate information is one of the main barriers preventing Gen Z from voting, the Voting Squad will serve as trusted messengers to reach and resonate with young voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections,” the organization said.

The initiative was announced in conjunction with National Voter Registration Day as the political battle for young voters intensifies ahead of November.

Kalisha Dessources Figures, a senior adviser for When We All Vote, made clear that the strategy is designed to insert election information directly into the online environments where younger Americans are already spending their time.

“Registering to vote takes less time than our daily doomscrolls,” Figures said in announcing the campaign.

She said the Voting Squad would bring “hope, community, and reminders of the power of our voices back into our timelines.”

The potential audience is substantial.

When We All Vote estimates that nearly 50 million members of Generation Z will be eligible to vote in the 2026 midterm elections.

That makes the battle for their attention — and ultimately their participation — potentially significant.

The strategy also reflects a major shift in how political and civic organizations attempt to reach younger Americans.

Social-media creators can develop intensely personal relationships with their audiences, often communicating in conversational formats that bear little resemblance to traditional political advertising.

That familiarity can give creators substantial influence with followers who may encounter their content every day.

It also raises the importance of transparency and accuracy when election-related information is mixed into feeds normally filled with entertainment, lifestyle advice and personal content.

When We All Vote identifies itself as a national, nonpartisan initiative focused on increasing voter participation, reducing voting gaps based on age and race, and changing the broader culture surrounding elections.

Obama founded the organization in 2018.

The Voting Squad campaign does not endorse a candidate or political party, according to When We All Vote, and its announced materials focus on voter registration, election deadlines and voting resources.

But the mechanics of the campaign are unmistakably ambitious: put election information in front of millions of young Americans without requiring them to leave the platforms and personalities they already follow.

The organization has been laying the groundwork for a broader Gen Z push throughout 2026.

Its “Pass the Mic to Gen Z” campaign has focused on identifying the issues younger Americans care about and connecting those concerns with civic participation. When We All Vote’s research found that social media plays a major role in Gen Z’s information habits, although traditional news websites and apps remain significant sources as well.

Now the organization is attempting to turn those media habits into real-world political participation.

The central question is whether millions of followers and social-media views will translate into actual registrations — and eventually ballots.

Creators may command enormous audiences, but online reach is not the same thing as voter turnout.

That is what makes the 2026 midterms an important test of the strategy.

Michelle Obama’s organization is betting that some of the most effective messengers for reaching the next generation of voters may not be politicians, campaign advertisements or traditional political organizations at all.

They may be the influencers already appearing on millions of phones every day.

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