The ballot box battle for the House majority resumes this week.

Special U.S. House contests in Georgia and New Jersey and a Virginia referendum that is the latest face-off between President Donald Trump and Republicans and Democrats in the high-stakes congressional redistricting wars — with the House majority on the line — will all draw national attention this month.

Also on tap in April: a state Supreme Court election in battleground Wisconsin.

The consequential elections come as the 2026 primary calendar, which kicked off in March, takes a break this month before returning with a vengeance in May.

TRUMP-BACKED FULLER ADVANCES IN RACE TO FILL MTG’S CONGRESSIONAL SEAT

Here’s a closer look at the four ballot box showdowns.

Trump-backed Republican House candidate Clay Fuller faces off with Democratic candidate Shawn Harris to fill a vacant congressional district in solidly red northwest Georgia that was once held by MAGA firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Harris, a retired brigadier general and cattle farmer, and Fuller, a local prosecutor and Air National Guard member, were the top two finishers in a field of 17 candidates, including 12 Republicans, in the early March special election. With no candidate topping 50%, Harris and Fuller advanced to a runoff.

SPECIAL ELECTION TO FILL MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE’S OLD SEAT IN CONGRESS HEADS INTO OVERTIME

The special election comes as Republicans cling to a razor-thin 218–214 majority in the House. That means the GOP cannot afford any surprises or allow Democrats to pull an upset in a district that extends from Atlanta’s northwest exurbs to Georgia’s northwestern border with Alabama and northern border with Tennessee, which Trump carried by 37 points in his 2024 presidential victory.

Fuller, who is expected to consolidate the Republican vote that was divided in the first round, is considered the clear frontrunner in the race. But if Harris holds Fuller’s margin to the mid-teens or less, national Democrats will argue the election is the latest in the 14 months since Trump returned to the White House in which they’ve overperformed.

The congressional seat was left vacant when Greene stepped down at the beginning of January. Greene quit Congress with a year left in her term, after a very public falling out with Trump mostly over her push to release the Jeffrey Epstein files.

While officially a non-partisan contest, state Supreme Court elections in the Midwestern battleground have become extremely partisan in recent years.

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With the court’s majority on the line in last year’s contests, outside money poured in and out-of-state door knockers blanketed Wisconsin. One of the biggest spenders was Trump ally Elon Musk, who headlined a rally days before the election and donned a cheesehead hat worn by fans of the Green Bay Packers.

Democrats won that election by a larger-than-expected margin and currently hold a 4-3 majority on Wisconsin’s highest court.

With a conservative justice retiring, the majority isn’t at stake in this year’s election, although liberals with a win could expand their majority to 5-2.

But if the conservative candidate wins, or keeps it close, the GOP may claim a moral victory.

Republican Joe Hathaway, a local mayor, is hoping to pull off an upset in the special election to fill the congressional seat left vacant after now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill stepped down after winning last November’s gubernatorial election.

Hathaway, who was unopposed in February’s primary, faces off in the election against Democrat Analilia Mejia, a progressive organizer backed by left-wing champions Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Mejia pulled off an upset, narrowly edging out front-runner former Rep. Tom Malinowski in a field of 11 candidates. The face-off was one of the latest between progressives and more mainstream Democrats.

The 11th Congressional District in northern New Jersey‘s New York City suburbs was once the kind of seat where Republicans excelled at the ballot box. Hathaway, who has pointed out his differences with Trump, is the type of Republican who could attract crossover voters.

Add in that Mejia may be too far to the left for some voters in the district, and there’s a chance for some intrigue on Election Day.

Voters in Virginia are casting ballots on a Democrat-pushed referendum that would give the competitive state up to four more left-leaning U.S. House districts in time for this year’s midterm elections.

That could result in a 10-1 advantage for Democrats in the state’s U.S. House delegation, up from their current 6-5 edge. 

With two weeks until Election Day, early voting is surging, according to officials, with turnout outpacing early voting from last autumn’s general election. Despite being vastly outraised by Democrats, Republicans see positive signs in early turnout.

Republicans call the Democrats’ redistricting effort an “unconstitutional power grab.” Democrats counter that it’s a necessary step to balance out partisan gerrymandering already implemented in other states by the GOP.

Virginia is the latest redistricting battleground, with Florida on deck, to alter congressional maps ahead of November’s elections.

Republicans are defending their razor-thin House majority in the midterms, and Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to win back control of the chamber. That means the redistricting efforts in Virginia and other states may very well decide which party controls the House next year.

President Donald Trump announced he will head to Beijing in May with the United States likely still dealing with the economic fallout from his reckless and costly war against Iran. Gas prices are rising, the stock market is tumbling, and American manufacturers, farmers and families are paying more for essential items as Trump continues to impose sweeping tariffs on America’s trading partners.  

By contrast, China enjoys stronger economic and strategic advantages than it did before President Trump began his second term. The president’s chaotic tariff policy was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court and has failed to rebalance America’s economic relationship with China. At the same time, it has seriously weakened the global coalition of American allies and partners needed to confront Beijing’s unfair economic policies.

Despite Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. global goods trade deficit increased to a record high of $1.23 trillion last year — more than $105 billion over the average goods deficit under President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus with the world ballooned, rising to an unprecedented $1.2 trillion in 2025 from $992 billion in 2024.

Although the bilateral U.S. trade deficit with China shrank, China now simply reroutes many of its goods — often illegally — to the United States through third countries, a concerning trend the Trump administration has failed to address.

TRUMP THREATENS ‘MASSIVE’ CHINA TARIFFS, SEES ‘NO REASON’ TO MEET WITH XI

The administration’s chaotic policies have harmed American manufacturers, farmers, and port workers — critical groups for America’s competition with China that President Trump claimed his policies would help. Since he returned to office, U.S. manufacturers have shed approximately 100,000 jobs and manufacturing construction has declined by 12%.

American farmers have lost more than $14 billion in sales to China and paid over $4 billion in higher input costs. Trump’s impulsive trade actions toward China have hit soybean farmers particularly hard: in 2025, China bought a paltry 7.4 tons of U.S. soybeans, down from 26.8 million tons in 2024.

Momentum to rebuild the U.S. shipbuilding industry, which has drawn support from both political parties and major industrial unions, has also stalled after Trump suspended critical fees on Chinese ships after meeting with Xi in South Korea last year.

WHY TRUMP’S WAR SPEECH FAILED: DECLARING VICTORY BUT STILL BOMBING IRAN BACK TO THE ‘STONE AGES’

The president has further jeopardized the prospects for workers at U.S. shipyards and ports by attacking the offshore wind industry, which has been forced to cancel ship orders and job contracts after his administration cut hundreds of millions of dollars in government support.

In short, Trump has done little to level the playing field with China and address its non-market policies that led to an estimated 3.7 million Americans losing good-paying jobs and contributed to nearly 70,000 U.S. factories shuttering between 2001 and 2018. In fact, he has made things worse. Trump’s visit to China may prove yet another instance of his art of the squeal — not art of the deal.

When he meets with Xi, Trump should start by demanding the Chinese Communist Party agree to rebalance our economic relationship and play by the same rules as we do. This means operating on market-oriented principles, upholding basic human rights and ceasing to distort markets with blanket subsidies, illegal dumping, intellectual property theft and currency manipulation. China’s suppression of labor rights and wages, including the use of forced labor, is particularly devastating for U.S. workers.

TRUMP SCORES FOUR BIG WINS WITH XI, BUT HAS ONE BIG MISS

Trump must be particularly forceful in demanding these changes to Beijing’s policies in the rare earths sector, where its price manipulation, heavy subsidization and lack of worker and environmental protections have stifled competition, giving the CCP a dangerous monopoly over an industry that underpins U.S. national defense and economic security.

If China does not support this constructive rebalancing of our relationship, we should be open to reviewing China’s permanent normal trade relations status, which gives China privileged access into the U.S. market.

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In the meantime, we should impose antidumping and countervailing duties as well as targeted tariffs in sectors where China’s overcapacity and other unfair practices threaten U.S. interests. Most importantly, we should invest revenue from those tariffs in a new fund for rebuilding domestic manufacturing in critical industries.

Trump must also clearly communicate to Xi that his escalating threats against Taiwan are unacceptable and that any war would be a disaster. Unfortunately, Trump’s war in Iran, which is costing American taxpayers an estimated $1 billion per day, has forced the Pentagon to pull important capabilities from the Indo-Pacific, weakening effective deterrence. His administration’s decision to delay an important arms sale package to Taiwan ahead of his trip and failure to mention Taiwan in its National Defense Strategy likely further embolden Xi.

Rather than abandoning our partners, Trump should bring America’s allies together to counter China’s nonmarket practices, revitalize the industrial bases of America and our allies, and push back against China’s efforts to creep towards hegemony in Asia.

Any deal President Trump considers with China must put America’s workers, farmers and families first and include a clear commitment to peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. An outcome short of that would make for yet another failed summit with Xi and put America’s economy and our friends in only greater jeopardy.

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Every politician eventually runs out of other people’s money to spend. Blue state governors and legislators are just running out faster than the rest.

Right now, there is a coordinated wave of new tax proposals sweeping California, New York, Washington state, Massachusetts, Michigan and Connecticut. The common thread? They all believe the solution to self-inflicted budget crises is to reach deeper into the pockets of their most productive residents. And if those residents decide to leave, they want to charge them an exit tax on the way out. What? Is this America?

Let that sink in. An exit tax. As in, we know you’re leaving because of our lousy tax structure, and we want the door to hit you on the way out.

CALIFORNIA’S HATRED FOR CAPITALISM IS KILLING THE GOOSE THAT LAID ITS GOLDEN EGG

The proposals on the table right now

California’s Billionaire Tax Act is the crown jewel of this movement. The ballot measure would impose a one-time 5% tax on the total net worth of anyone worth more than $1 billion residing in the state. Not their income. Their net worth. Think about what that means for a founder whose entire net worth is locked up in a private company that employs thousands of people.  And think about how many millionaires they made themselves building that company.  You could have $2 million in liquid assets, and a $100 billion paper valuation and California would hand you a $5 billion tax bill. That’s not a tax policy. That’s an asset seizure dressed up as fairness.

Washington state, which has never had an income tax in its history just passed a 9.9% tax on incomes over $1 million. The moment that bill cleared the legislature, Starbucks founder Howard Schultz announced he was moving to Florida. Shocker. Starbucks’ own headquarters announced it’s moving to Tennessee. Shocker. When the founder and the company both leave at the same time, that’s not a coincidence. That’s a message we hear in a resounding fashion from high tax high spend states.

Michigan wants to amend its state constitution to impose a 9.25% top rate on incomes over $500,000. For residents of Detroit, the combined state and local rate would approach nearly 12%. Meanwhile, across the border in Ohio, the flat income tax rate is 2.75%. In Indiana, it’s 2.95%. You don’t need to be a certified financial planner to do that math. You just need a moving truck.

SEAHAWKS GM WARNS WASHINGTON’S NEW ‘MILLIONAIRE TAX’ COULD HURT FREE AGENT RECRUITING

This is a story about bad leadership decisions

I want to be clear about something. I’m not here to defend billionaires. I’m here to defend economic reality.

The top 1% of California taxpayers currently supplies nearly half of all income tax collections in the state. Half. That’s not a sustainable revenue model. That’s a house of cards. And the moment those top earners which are not just the billionaires, but when the $500,000-a-year business owners, the startup investors, the executives start relocating, the math collapses for everyone else who stays behind.

MAMDANI’S ESTATE TAX PLAN COULD DRIVE WEALTH OUT OF STATE, CRITICS WARN

This has already started. Six of California’s 214 billionaires left before the proposed January 1, 2026, residency cutoff. Those six people alone took $27 billion in potential tax revenue with them. Google co-founder Larry Page dropped $170 million on a Miami estate and moved his family office out of California. David Sacks who lived 30 years in the state packed up for Texas and called the proposed tax what it really is which is an asset seizure.

Here’s what I’ve learned in over thirty years as a financial advisor. Wealthy people don’t wait for the bill to arrive. They plan years in advance. The exits happening today were decided in law offices and financial planning meetings 18 months ago. The exits that haven’t happened yet are being decided right now.

Why this should matter to you even if you’re not a billionaire

WASHINGTON DEMS PASSED AN INCOME TAX THEY KNOW IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL. THAT WAS THE POINT

Here’s where this stops being an abstract policy debate and starts affecting your daily life.

When high earners leave a state, the remaining tax base must pick up the tab. Services get cut. Or taxes get raised on the next rung of earners which are the people making $150,000, then $100,000, then lower. California, New York, and Michigan didn’t build world-class universities, hospitals, and infrastructure by accident. They built them on the backs of a thriving private economy. Dismantle the engine, and eventually the whole train stops.

There’s also a broader economic signal being sent here. When Washington state is no longer a zero-income-tax state, when California makes it financially dangerous to be a successful founder,  and when Michigan punishes its highest earners at nearly 12 cents on the dollar innovation, capital, and job creation go somewhere else. And somewhere else, right now, is Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada.

CALIFORNIA’S LOOMING CAPITAL FLIGHT PROBLEM COULD RESHAPE STATE IN 3 KEY AREAS

What you should do right now

If you live in one of these states and you have built meaningful wealth including a business, a portfolio, a real estate holding, or a qualified retirement account this is not a news story to skim and forget. This is a planning conversation to have with your financial advisor and your estate planning attorney. Several of these proposals include exit taxes on residents who leave within five years of implementation. The window to plan proactively is now. Not after the ballot measure passes. Not after the bill is signed. Now.

Wealthy people are not a fixed resource. They are mobile, they are organized, and they have options.

And right now, those options are looking a lot like the Sunshine State instead of the Golden State.