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Examining NATO: Inside the ‘commitment gap’ as US carries alliance deterrence

Published

2 weeks ago

May 3, 2026

This is part one of a series examining the challenges confronting the NATO alliance.

As President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on NATO allies to increase defense spending — and orders the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany over the next six to 12 months — a deeper issue is coming into focus: even as allied budgets rise, NATO still depends heavily on American military power to function.

NATO’s imbalance is not theoretical — and it is not new, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital, “I told the president… maybe you ought to talk about a tiered relationship with NATO,” Kellogg described conversations with Donald Trump in his first term about the alliance’s future. “…we need to develop a new, for lack of a better term, a new NATO a new defensive alignment with Europe.”

Kellogg, who served as a senior national security official during Trump’s first term, said the alliance has expanded politically but not militarily — creating what he sees as a growing gap between commitments and real capability.

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“You started with 12, and you went to 32, and in the process, I think you diluted the impact,” he argued, calling today’s NATO “a very bloated architecture.”

“They haven’t put the money into defense. Their defense industry and defense forces have atrophied. When you look at the Brits right now, they could barely deploy forces: they have two aircraft carriers, both under maintenance. Their brigades are like one out of six that work. And you just look at the capability, it’s just not there. So I think we need to realize that and say, well, we need something different,” Kellogg, who is the co-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Foreign Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital.

But not everyone agrees the alliance is losing relevance.

“It has never been more relevant,” said John R. Deni, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, who says NATO remains central to U.S. national security.

“The reason for that is twofold,” he said. “One, it’s our comparative advantage versus the Chinese and the Russians… they don’t have anything like this.”

“And the second reason… NATO underwrites the security and stability of our most important trade and investment relationship,” he added, referring to economic ties between North America and Europe.

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By around 2010, the United States accounted for roughly 65% to 70% of NATO defense spending, according to analysis provided by Barak Seener from the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.

“They’ve always been dependent on the U.S.,” Kellogg said of the European allies.

“The allies overall rely upon one another for deterrence and defense by design,” Deni said, explaining that alliances exist to “pool their resources” and “aggregate their individual strengths.”

Deni pointed to ground forces as a clear example of what the U.S. gains from the alliance, noting that “there are far more allied mechanized infantry forces on the ground than there are Americans.”

Still, he acknowledged that reliance has at times gone too far.

“In the past… it was fair to say that the European allies were overly reliant upon the Americans for conventional defense,” he said, pointing to the 2000s.

That, he said, was partly driven by U.S. priorities — as Washington pushed European allies to focus on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq rather than territorial defense.

Seener describes NATO as “formally collective, but functionally asymmetric,” with the U.S. providing a disproportionate share of “high-end capabilities.”

That asymmetry is most visible in nuclear deterrence.

Seener said the U.S. provides the overwhelming majority of NATO’s nuclear arsenal — including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched systems and strategic bombers — meaning deterrence ultimately relies on the assumption of U.S. retaliation.

A NATO official told Fox News Digital that, “The U.S. nuclear deterrent cannot be replaced, but it is clear that Europe needs to step up. There’s no question. There needs to be a better balance when it comes to our defense and security. Both because we see the vital role the U.S. plays around the world and the resources that it demands, and also because it is only fair.”

“The good news,” the official added, “is that the Allies are doing exactly that. They are stepping up, working together — and with the U.S. — to ensure we collectively have what we need to deter and defend one billion people living across the Euro-Atlantic area.”

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Beyond nuclear weapons, the dependence runs through the alliance’s operational backbone.

Seener pointed to U.S.-provided intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — as well as logistics and command systems — as essential to NATO operations.

“Without U.S. intelligence and surveillance, NATO loses situational awareness and early warning capabilities,” Seener said, adding, “So that means that Russia, for example, can attack Europe. And theoretically, if there’s no NATO and the U.S. is not involved, Europe would not be aware, or it would take it too long to be able to defend itself.”

Kellogg also says that much of Europe’s military capability falls short of top-tier systems.

“For the most part, their equipment, if you had to grade it A, B, C, D, E, F, they’re kind of like B players or C players,” he said. “It’s not the first line of work.”

He pointed to air and missile defense as a key gap, noting that while European countries rely on U.S.-made systems such as Patriot and THAAD, “they don’t have a system that’s comparable.”

Kellogg attributed that to years of underinvestment, saying European defense industries “have atrophied,” adding that the United States is also now “relearning that as well.”

TRUMP AFFIRMS US ‘WILL ALWAYS BE THERE FOR NATO,’ WHILE EXPRESSING DOUBTS ABOUT ALLIANCE

Deni said the picture today is more mixed.

“Alliance defense spending has been up… and has spiked far more after 2022,” he said, pointing to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 as a turning point.

But he cautioned that capability gains take time, noting that many improvements are still years away from full deployment.

Deni pointed to recent European purchases of U.S. systems as evidence of growing capability, noting that countries including Poland, Romania, Norway and Denmark are acquiring the F-35 fighter jet from the U.S.

“You can’t build an F-35 overnight,” he said, adding that many of these improvements will take years to fully materialize.

A NATO official told Fox News Digital the alliance “needs to move further and faster” to meet growing threats, pointing to new capability targets agreed by defense ministers in June 2025.

The official said priorities include air and missile defense, long-range weapons, logistics and large land forces, noting that while details remain classified, plans call for a fivefold increase in air and missile defense, “thousands more” armored vehicles and tanks, and “millions more” artillery shells. NATO also aims to double key enabling capabilities such as logistics, transportation and medical support.

The official added that allies are increasing investments in warships, aircraft, drones, long-range missiles, as well as space and cyber capabilities, while boosting readiness and modernizing command and control.

“These targets are now included in national plans,” the official said, adding that allies must demonstrate how they will meet them through sustained defense spending and capability development.

The NATO official also noted that European allies lead multinational forces across Central and Eastern Europe, while the U.S. and Canada serve as framework nations in Poland and Latvia, alongside ongoing air policing missions and NATO’s KFOR operation in Kosovo.

Kellogg’s warning is direct: NATO’s deterrence depends on U.S. presence.

“The one you always have to worry about… is Russia,” Kellogg, who was Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia in 2025, said.

If U.S. forces are tied down elsewhere, NATO could face serious strain — particularly in areas like intelligence and logistics.

For Kellogg, the danger is delay. “We won’t know until it happens,” he said. “And then you won’t be able to respond to it.”

Deni, however, said the alliance remains a strategic asset — not a liability.

The question, he suggests, is not whether NATO still works. It is whether allies can adapt fast enough to keep it working.

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Trump Seemingly Upends America’s Decades-Long Taiwan Stance In One Interview

Published

37 minutes ago

May 16, 2026

Addison Blake

‘cool down’

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License plate cameras at Home Depot and Lowe’s spark privacy fears

Published

37 minutes ago

May 16, 2026

Addison Blake

You pull into a Home Depot or Lowe’s parking lot to grab mulch, paint or a new patio chair. You probably expect security cameras near the entrance. What you may not expect is a camera that captures your license plate as you drive in or out.

That is now reportedly happening at some Home Depot and Lowe’s stores in Connecticut. The cameras are automated license plate readers, also known as ALPRs. They photograph the back of a vehicle, record the plate number and log details such as time and location.

Retailers say the systems help prevent theft and protect customers and employees. Police say the cameras can help solve crimes. However, privacy advocates worry that shoppers may have little idea when their plate is being scanned or who can later search that data.

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WASHINGTON COURT SAYS FLOCK CAMERA IMAGES ARE PUBLIC RECORDS

Automated license plate readers use cameras and software to capture plate numbers from passing vehicles. Police departments often use them on roads to look for stolen cars, missing vehicles or suspects tied to active investigations.

Now, similar systems are showing up in retail parking lots. In Connecticut, Flock Safety cameras have been installed at some Home Depot and Lowe’s locations. Flock Safety’s license plate reader technology captures vehicle information, including license plates and vehicle characteristics such as make, model and color on the property. The company said its system does not use facial recognition.

That means a quick trip to Home Depot or Lowe’s could create a searchable data point tied to your vehicle. Also, more than two dozen police departments in the state use automated plate readers.

Home Depot and Lowe’s say the cameras are used for security, theft prevention and public safety.

In a statement to CyberGuy, a Home Depot spokesperson said, “We’ve had parking area security cameras in place at our stores for many years, as many retailers do. These cameras are used solely as a security measure to prevent theft and protect the safety of our customers and associates in our stores. We do not grant access to our license plate readers to federal law enforcement.” Home Depot also points customers to its usage policy posted on its website.

Home Depot’s statement addresses federal law enforcement access, but questions remain about how local or out-of-state police requests are handled.

Lowe’s privacy policy says personal information collected through ALPRs may be used to help ensure security, prevent theft and fraud, assist with parking enforcement and help keep people and property safe.

That may sound reasonable, especially with organized retail theft making headlines. Still, the bigger question is what happens after your plate gets scanned.

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Yes, in some cases. Police officials say law enforcement can access data from Lowe’s and Home Depot license plate cameras in Connecticut. Some local departments have also entered into written agreements with retailers to receive automatic or continuous access to cameras at certain stores.

When Flock Safety cameras are deployed by private businesses, the data is owned and controlled by the business or organization using the system. The company says data sharing is off by default, and any decision to share data requires an active choice by the data owner. Flock also says every search is permanently logged in an immutable audit trail. That means police access isn’t simply automatic through Flock. It depends on whether the business chooses to share access, how that access is granted and which agencies are approved.

That is where the privacy debate gets tricky. Connecticut recently passed new rules for police use of automated license plate readers. The law limits how police can share plate data with out-of-state agencies, adds data retention rules and prohibits use of the systems for immigration enforcement.

MICROSOFT CROSSES PRIVACY LINE FEW EXPECTED

However, the law focuses on public agencies. It does not directly address private companies that use similar cameras in their parking lots. That means a police-owned camera on a road may face one set of rules, while a retailer-owned camera in a store parking lot may fall into a murkier category. Private retailers also do not have the same public disclosure requirements as police departments.

So shoppers may not know which local or out-of-state agencies have access, how often police search the data or what happens when requests cross state lines. That’s the bigger concern. The issue isn’t only that your plate may be scanned. It is that the rules may depend on who owns the camera.

You cannot fully stop a camera from seeing your license plate when you drive in public. However, you can take a few practical steps.

Check for signs near parking lot entrances or store exits. Some retailers may disclose the use of license plate readers on signs, store websites or privacy policies.

Search the retailer’s privacy policy for phrases such as “automated license plate reader,” “ALPR,” “vehicle information,” or “license plate.” That can help you understand what data the company says it collects and why.

Contact customer service if you want clearer answers. Ask how long the company keeps license plate data, which agencies can access it and how requests from law enforcement are reviewed. Flock Safety data is automatically deleted after 30 days by default. Shoppers can still ask whether a retailer uses the default setting or a different retention policy.

Pay attention to local and state rules. More states are looking closely at license plate reader data, but private use may still fall behind police regulation.

Retailers want tools that help stop theft. Police want information that can help with investigations. Those goals are not hard to understand.

The problem is transparency. People should know when their movements are being logged, how long that data lasts and who can search it later.

License plate readers are spreading because they are useful. However, useful technology still needs clear rules. Without them, a simple shopping trip can become another piece of location data sitting in a database most people never knew existed.

This does not mean you need to avoid Home Depot or Lowe’s. It does mean some retail parking lots may collect more information than you realize. Your license plate is already visible in public. But automated scanning changes the equation. A person spotting your plate in a parking lot is one thing. A searchable database that logs when and where your vehicle appeared is very different. The concern comes down to control and transparency.

The rules can vary depending on who owns the camera, who manages the data and who gets access. A local police camera may face public reporting rules. A private retailer’s system can still leave shoppers with questions about which agencies received access and how those decisions were made.

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License plate cameras at stores create a privacy tradeoff that none of us signed up for. On one hand, stores want to stop theft and keep parking lots safer. That makes sense. On the other hand, you may not expect your license plate to be logged just because you ran in for mulch, batteries or a new drill bit. That is why transparency is so important. If private companies are collecting this kind of data and police can access it, you deserve to know how long it is kept, who can search it and what rules are in place. Security can be useful, but it should not come with a guessing game about where your information goes next.

Would you still shop at a store if you knew your license plate was being scanned and potentially shared with police? Let us know by writing to us at Cyberguy.com

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Latest

2026 Preakness Stakes post positions, morning-line odds, picks: Three horses to bet at Laurel Park

Published

37 minutes ago

May 16, 2026

Addison Blake

For a second straight year, the Kentucky Derby champion, Golden Tempo, has opted out of the 2026 Preakness Stakes, so there won’t be a Triple Crown winner.

Rather than run in the Preakness, Golden Tempo’s connections are pointing their thoroughbred toward the Belmont Stakes at the Saratoga Racetrack next month.

The second jewel of the Triple Crown is relocating in-state (Maryland) to Laurel Park while the Preakness’s traditional track, the Pimlico Race Course, goes through renovations.

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Iron Honor, the 9-2 morning-line favorite, will race 13 rivals on Laurel Park’s one-and-three-sixteenth-mile dirt track Saturday, May 16, for a $2 million purse.

While Golden Tempo’s absence shifts the Triple Crown outlook, the 14-horse field at Laurel Park offers excellent value. Here is the recommended wagering strategy for the 2026 Preakness Stakes.

Talk about a horse for the course; Taj Mahal is a perfect 3-for-3 in his career, with all three wins coming at Laurel Park. He’s run a faster Beyer speed figure and a longer distance all three times out. Taj Mahal is tied for the second-fastest “early speed” in this race and starts on the rail.

This could be a great setup for Ocelli. He is one of the three “closing” horses in this field and has run a faster Beyer in four consecutive races. If there is a “pace melt” in the Preakness, he could chase down the leaders on the final stretch.

His 94 at the Kentucky Derby is the third-fastest speed figure in this race. The Whitworth Beckman trainee proved he is fit for the longer distance when he finished third in the Kentucky Derby a few weeks ago. Ocelli looks good in training with three straight blazing-fast workouts leading into the Preakness.

A disappointing start to his 3-year-old season with two fifth-place finishes at the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and Grade 2 Wood Memorial. But Napoleon was 2-for-2 as a 2-year-old in New York.

He broke his maiden at Saratoga with a 5.25-length win on debut, and he backed it up with a 6.5-length win at the Grade 1 Champagne at Aqueduct last year.

Napoleon’s Champagne win earned a 95 Beyer, tied for the fastest in this race. If he can regain the speed from his 2-year-old season, Napoleon can hit the board at the Preakness.

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