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Kentucky Oaks 2026 betting guide: Picks for ‘Oaks Day’ at Churchill Downs

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Forget the small talk, Churchill Downs is officially rocking as we kick off Derby weekend with the 2026 Kentucky Oaks. The Lilies for the Fillies isn’t just a tradition; it’s a high-stakes, Grade 1 showdown.

This is the premier stage for three-year-old fillies. On this Friday, May 1, the energy in Louisville is electric, and the betting windows are already seeing massive volume.

With a loaded field, strong contenders and the spotlight shining bright in Louisville, this race gives bettors one more huge chance to cash before Derby Day takes over the weekend.

2026 KENTUCKY DERBY: POST POSITION DRAW, OPENING MORNING-LINE ODDS

Let’s stop talking and get to the betting window. Here are my picks and exotics for the 2026 Kentucky Oaks.

2026 Kentucky Oaks Day Betting Card 

Race 8: Grade 2 Eight Belles, 4:30 p.m. ET post time 

Seven-furlong dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $700K purse. 

#2 French Fiction (6-1 on the morning-line) 

I’m “buying the dip” after she finished fourth by 15 lengths in the G1 Ashland her last time out. But French Fiction is turning back after running a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile race at the Ashland.

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She went off at a shorter price in all three starts (2-0-0) and her two wins at six furlongs had 81 and 84 speed figures. That said, I like the price and French Fiction at a shorter distance. 

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Race 9: Grade 2 Alysheba Belles, 5:12 p.m. ET post time 

One-and-one-sixteenth-mile dirt track for four-year-olds and upward with a $750K purse. 

#8 Corporate Power

Finished second his last time out in the Grade 2 New Orleans, but his 106 speed figure is the second-fastest in this race. Mounted by Jose Ortiz, “who was the hottest rider at CD [Churchill Downs] to begin this meet,” per the Daily Racing Form.

Corporate Power’s sire (Curlin) and dam (Road To Victory) both won graded stakes races on the Churchill Downs dirt. He is one of two closers in a race and could capitalize on a pace melt if the early speed horses burn out down the stretch. 

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Race 12: Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes, 7:40 p.m. ET post time 

One-and-one-eighth-mile turf track for 3-year-old fillies with a $600K purse. 

#1 Storm’s Wake (6-1)

She beat out two rivals in this field to win the Grade 2 Appalachian her last time out. Her 89 speed figure is the fastest in this race and she has won her only race at the Churchill Downs turn. Storm’s Wake is a horse for the course, winning her only race at Churchill last summer.

#8 Lion Lake (8-1)

She’s run faster in all six races (2-1-2). Lion Lake’s 88 speed figure in a blanket-finish third in the Grade 2 Appalachian her last time out is tied for the second-fastest figure in this race. Before that, she won the Grade 3 Here Comes The Bride at Gulfstream in February. 

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Race 13: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, 8:40 p.m. ET post time 

One-and-one-eighth-mile dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $1.5 million purse. 

#1 Explora (6-1) 

This filly has finished first or second in her seven career starts. There is a lot of speed in this race, but Explora has the fastest “early speed”. Drawing the rail in the Oaks could help control the pace and get out to an early lead.

Explora’s jockey, Flavien Prat, is one of the best in the world, and she posted a career-best 88 speed figure in her win at the Grade 3 Honeybee her last time out. I like the #9 to eventually run her down, but I’m using Explora in my exotics and multi-race wagers.

#4 Counting Stars (8-1) 

She might not be a popular bet because her rivals have better connections and jockeys. But Counting Stars has “tactical speed,” meaning there isn’t much of a difference between her early and late speeds, so she could win the Oaks regardless of the pace (theoretically).

Her 92 speed figure in a win at the Grade 2 Fantasy her last time out is the fastest speed in this field. Counting Stars has gone off as the favorite in three of her last four starts and outran her 11-1 odds in a second in the Grade 3 Honeybee. She won in her only visit to Churchill Downs.

#9 Always a Runner (10-1)

Experience, or lack thereof, is Always a Runner’s biggest question mark. Otherwise, she has the talent to win the Oaks. She ran an 89 speed figure in a win at the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct her last time out, which is the fourth-fastest race from any horse in this field.

Plus, we know she can handle the distance, as the Gazelle was also one-and-one-eighth miles. Lastly, Always a Runner has a better closing kick than any of her rivals in the Oaks, and if there is a “pace melt,” I like her chances of running past the field on the home stretch. 

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.

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Pacers president apologizes to fans after team’s ‘risk’ backfires in NBA Draft Lottery

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The Indiana Pacers’ risky move backfired after the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery saw them lose their top pick altogether in a disastrous turn of events on Sunday afternoon.

Heading into the lottery, the Pacers, who went 19-63 just one season after reaching the NBA Finals out of the Eastern Conference, had a 52.1% chance of having a top-four pick.

However, when they didn’t see their team chosen in the first four picks – Indiana also had a 14% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick – it was time to panic.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COM

The reason? The Pacers included their first-round pick in a trade with the Los Angeles Clippers for Ivica Zubac, but they only made it a top-four protected pick. That means, if the Pacers were chosen in the lottery as a top-four selection, they would be able to keep it.

But the Pacers were chosen as the No. 5 pick, and the Clippers now own the selection in next month’s draft.

NBA LOTTERY CHAOS: WASHINGTON WIZARDS STRIKE GOLD, PACERS PAY FOR TANKING GAMBLE NIGHTMARE

As a result, Pacers team president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard took full responsibility for the move, apologizing on social media.

“I’m really sorry to all our fans,” he wrote on X. “I own taking this risk. Surprised it came up 5th after this year. I thought we were due some luck. But please remember – this team deserved a starting center to compete with the best teams next year. We have always been resilient.”

The Pacers were viewed as a team that were actively tanking despite the NBA’s attempt to crack down on such a season, with the lottery being one way of that. And it clearly worked this time around.

Pritchard was trying to be transparent and honest with the Pacers fan base, but people were quick to jump in the comments to make their thoughts, and gripes, known.

“You lose Myles Turner and add Zubac,” one X user began. “You lose [Benedict] Mathurin and the number 5 pick with absolutely nothing in return. This is why fans are upset, for a center who not even a top 5 center in the NBA. Who trades their future away for Ivan [sic] Zubac???”

Another X user called this a “generational draft,” and couldn’t fathom the Pacers won’t be picking from a deep class.

“If I were a Pacers fan and my team traded away a top 5 pick for Ivica Zubac in the middle of a tanking season I would be beyond devastated,” a fellow X user wrote.

The Pacers were without their All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton all season long after he suffered an Achilles injury during the NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder. But Indiana still has key members of that team returning next season, including Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, and Aaron Nesmith.

However, this 2026 draft class is quite the spectacle, with many believing it to be deep considering the talent of BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, UNC’s Caleb Wilson, and Duke’s Cam Boozer, among others.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

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Israeli PM Netanyahu argues public opinion shift on Israel ‘correlates almost 100%’ to social media

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed on “60 Minutes” Sunday that the dramatic shift in public opinion on his country could be traced to the rise in social media.

“Israel has gone to unbelievable lengths to get innocent civilians out of harm’s way,” Netanyahu said. “We text message millions of text messages to them—make millions of phone calls to them, pamphlets, leaflets, you name it, OK? We have seen the deterioration of the support for Israel in the United States almost — I would say, it correlates almost 100% with the geometric rise of social media.”

He continued, “And that by itself is not what caused it. And I don’t believe in, you know, in censoring them or anything. But I’ll tell you what happened. We have several countries that basically manipulated social media. And they do it in a clever way. And that’s something that has hurt us badly.”

IRAN-LINKED INFLUENCE CAMPAIGN PUSHES ANTI-ISRAEL MESSAGING DISGUISED AS US VOICES

Netanyahu acknowledged that Israel has made “mistakes” in its war against Hamas but emphasized that they were not deliberate actions.

“Israel is besieged on the media front, on the propaganda front, and we’ve not done well on the propaganda war,” he said.

Netanyahu remarked that even host Major Garrett would not be immune to negative propaganda if there was enough pressure against him.

CONTRIBUTOR FOR FAR-LEFT OUTLET CALLS FOR ‘WIPING OUT ISRAEL,’ SAYS ISRAELIS ‘MUSTN’T FEEL SAFE’

“I can paint you as a monster,” Netanyahu said. “And if I say it often enough, enough people will believe it.”

An NBC News poll in March found that only 32% of Americans view Israel positively while 39% of Americans saw the nation in a negative light. The shift was far more pronounced among Democrats and independents, while Republicans were still largely sympathetic to the Jewish state.

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This shift in opinion followed Israel’s war with Gaza, as well as the U.S.-led military strikes on Iran.

During the interview, Netanyahu indicated that the war with Iran was “not over” yet despite significant accomplishments.

“I think it accomplished a great deal, but it’s not over, because there’s still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran. There are still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. There are still proxies that Iran supports. There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce. Now, we’ve degraded a lot of it. But all that is still there, and there’s work to be done,” Netanyahu said.

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Yordan Alvarez trade talk heats up as Astros sit in last place with a wave of devastating injuries

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The Houston Astros have been one of Major League Baseball’s most consistent franchises in the modern era. Over the last decade, the Astros have the second-most wins and second-highest winning percentage of any organization at 890-627. 

They’ve won two World Series titles, one in 2022 and the other in 2017. Though that 2017 championship is marred by one of the most egregious cheating scandals in baseball history. 

They’ve made the World Series four times since 2017, won the AL West seven out of eight years, and made the postseason eight years in a row. That streak ended in 2025, when a slew of injuries led to an 87-75 season. 2026 was supposed to be a return to form, led by ace Hunter Brown, new import Tatsuya Imai, closer Josh Hader, one of the best handful of hitters in baseball, Yordan Alvarez, and hope for a resurgent season back in Houston for Carlos Correa. 

Fast forward to mid-May, and the Astros are, well, bad. After yet another loss on Sunday, they’ve dropped to 16-25, sit tied for last place in the division, and have the second-worst run differential in the American League.

ASTROS’ $54M PITCHER BLAMES ARM FATIGUE ON STRUGGLE TO ADJUST TO AMERICAN LIFESTYLE

 That’s just the start of their problems. 

Brown has been on the injured list for most of the season with a shoulder strain. Josh Hader has yet to pitch this year after suffering left biceps tendinitis. Jeremy Pena has been out since mid-April with a hamstring strain. Imai went down with arm fatigue after a brutal start to his MLB career, then blamed that arm fatigue on a tough adjustment to the US lifestyle. Christian Javier is out with a shoulder strain of his own.  

Then, the big blow. Just last week, Correa went down for the season with a torn ankle tendon, an injury that occurred during batting practice.

ASTROS STAR CARLOS CORREA OUT FOR THE SEASON AFTER TEARING ANKLE TENDON DURING BATTING PRACTICE

Some of these injured players are set to return in the coming weeks, but it’s raising a difficult question for a team that’s always a part of the postseason conversation: Is it time to sell? The free agent market after the 2026 season isn’t a strong one, and the headliner, Tarik Skubal, is going to miss time with an injury of his own. Could Houston sell Alvarez and rebuild for next year and beyond? 

Bob Nightengale from USA Today broached that topic, quoting a “veteran scout” who likened Alvarez to Barry Bonds. Another executive said any potential trade package would be gigantic.

“He’s the greatest pure hitter I’ve seen in this game since Barry Bonds,” the scout said. “This guy is unbelievable. He’s the best pure hitter in the game, and it’s not close.”

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“If they traded him, I think they’d get a better package than what the Nationals got for Juan Soto,” added the executive.

Nightengale added that no deal is close, and it remains unlikely, but the Astros would be irresponsible not to listen if such an offer presents itself. Alvarez is, once again, having an outstanding season. Entering Sunday, he was hitting .327/.432/.660 with 13 home runs, good for a 195 weighted runs created plus and 2.1 wins above replacement.

He’s still just 28-years-old, and signed through the 2028 season. Though he has little defensive value, his offensive contributions are so valuable he’d bring back a number of top prospects. And any number of teams would be interested. 

The Mets, for example, are desperate for help on offense. The Boston Red Sox could be aggressive, and have the prospects to swing a deal. San Francisco under Buster Posey has shown a willingness to make big trades. There won’t be a shortage of suitors, if Alvarez is made available. And given Houston’s aging roster, overwhelming injuries, and poor start, maybe he should be.

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