Latest
TANVI RATNA: With one war, Trump is breaking Middle East’s old power structure
The Middle East is once again on edge as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure continue. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks. Oil markets have surged, and global shipping lanes are under pressure.
But this is not unfolding like a typical war in the region.
Even as strikes continue, tankers are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz under constrained conditions. Backchannel communications have not collapsed. Key regional players are not fully committing to either escalation or restraint. Instead, they are doing something far more telling: they are adjusting.
That is the first signal that this is not just a military confrontation. It is a system under stress—one that is being deliberately reshaped.
TRUMP SAYS IRAN’S SUCCESSION BENCH WIPED OUT AS ISRAELI STRIKE HITS LEADERSHIP DELIBERATIONS
To understand what is happening now, you have to go back to the system that existed before this moment.
For nearly two decades, the Middle East operated on a managed equilibrium. After the Iraq War, through the Arab Spring, and into the fight against ISIS, three distinct power structures emerged and learned to coexist without resolving their conflicts.
Shia-dominated Iran built what became known as the “Axis of Resistance,” embedding itself across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. These were not loose proxy relationships. They were institutional footholds—militias integrated into state structures, political actors controlling territory and budgets. Iran’s incentive was clear: expand influence without triggering a direct, overwhelming response. Stay below the threshold of full-scale war while steadily increasing leverage.
TRUMP’S OPERATION EPIC FURY PROVES REAGAN-STYLE PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH IS BACK
Across the Sunni world, there was no unified front to counter this. Saudi Arabia and the UAE pushed for a centralized, state-led regional order, while Turkey and Qatar backed Islamist political movements that offered a competing model of legitimacy. Their incentive was not alignment, but competition. Each camp used regional conflicts to expand influence without fully committing to a single strategic bloc.
Israel, meanwhile, stood apart. By the mid-2010s, it had unmatched military capability and operational reach, but it remained outside the region’s political framework. Its incentive was to preserve that advantage through deterrence—strike when necessary, but avoid becoming entangled in the region’s unstable alliances.
The United States managed this system rather than resolving it. The Iran nuclear deal treated Tehran’s nuclear ambitions as separate from its regional behavior. Conflicts like Gaza followed a predictable cycle of escalation and ceasefire. Stability was maintained, but only by compartmentalizing the underlying tensions.
TRUMP’S STRIKE ON IRAN DEALS A MAJOR BLOW TO PUTIN’S WAR MACHINE IN UKRAINE
That model allowed every actor to operate within the system without fundamentally changing it.
President Donald Trump rejected that model from the start.
His first major break came in May 2018, when he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sweeping sanctions. This was not just a policy shift on nuclear issues. It was a systemic move. By targeting Iran’s oil exports, financial networks and shipping, the administration began raising the cost of maintaining its regional architecture.
MORNING GLORY: TRUMP HAS RESTORED THE GOP AS THE PARTY OF DEFENSE AND DETERRENCE
The incentive for Iran started to change. Expansion was no longer low-risk. Every additional node in its network now carried economic and operational consequences.
That pressure escalated in April 2019 with the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, and then in January 2020 with the strike that killed Qassem Soleimani. These actions were widely described as escalation at the time. In reality, they were consistent steps in a broader strategy: eliminate the assumption that Iran could operate indefinitely in the gray zone.
At the same time, Trump moved to reshape the other side of the system.
TRUMP’S IRAN STRATEGY IS WORKING AND TEACHING OUR FOES WHAT DETERRENCE MEANS
The Abraham Accords in 2020 broke one of the longest-standing constraints in Middle Eastern diplomacy. For decades, Arab states had conditioned normalization with Israel on a resolution to the Palestinian issue. Trump reversed that sequence. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalized relations first, followed by Morocco and Sudan.
This created a new set of incentives across the Sunni world. Alignment with Israel was no longer politically off limits. It became a pathway to security cooperation, advanced technology and closer ties with the United States. Instead of waiting for a final settlement, states could now act in their immediate strategic interest.
For Israel, this was a structural shift. It was no longer operating outside the regional system. It was being integrated into it.
But alignment alone did not resolve the system’s contradictions.
Saudi Arabia remained cautious. Turkey and Qatar continued to pursue their own networks. Iran’s influence persisted through deeply embedded institutions. The region had new alignments, but they were incomplete.
This is where Trump’s approach evolved from alignment to enforcement.
AMB. GORDON SONDLAND: THE TRUTH ABOUT IRAN’S ‘IMMINENT THREAT’ THAT POLITICIANS HATE TO ADMIT
During the Gaza war following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, the United States helped broker a phased arrangement by early 2025 that tied hostage releases to Israeli withdrawals and linked humanitarian aid to monitoring mechanisms. This was not a traditional ceasefire. It introduced conditionality directly into the structure of the agreement.
That logic carried forward into 2026 with the development of a U.S.-led reconstruction and governance framework involving Israel and its regional partners. The principle was clear: participation in the system would now be tied to measurable outcomes.
This changed incentives again. Cooperation was no longer symbolic. It became transactional and enforceable.
MORNING GLORY: THERE’S A WAR GOING ON IN THE MIDDLE EAST. HAVE YOU HEARD?
And yet, even with these changes, the system did not fully realign.
Iran’s networks remained intact. Sunni divisions persisted. Israel continued to expand its own strategic relationships beyond the immediate region. The old structures were weakened, but not dismantled.
That is why the current war matters.
MORE THAN 90% OF IRANIAN MISSILES INTERCEPTED, BUT A DANGEROUS IMBALANCE IS EMERGING
The strikes that began at the end of February 2026 are not just about degrading Iranian military capabilities. They are about forcing simultaneous adjustments across all three systems.
Iran is now facing a different calculation than at any point in the past two decades. Its strategy of gradual expansion has collided with sustained economic pressure and direct military risk. The incentive is shifting from building influence to preserving it under constraint.
Sunni states are being pushed out of their comfort zone of strategic ambiguity. The ability to hedge between competing blocs is narrowing. As pressure increases, the cost of remaining non-aligned rises, and the incentive to consolidate around a clearer regional framework becomes stronger.
THE FUTURE OF WAR? US-ISRAEL BLITZ ON IRAN UNVEILS NEXT-GEN ALLIED COMBAT
Israel, in turn, is being positioned not just as a military actor, but as a central node in that emerging framework. Its role is evolving from deterrence to system participation—linking security, technology and governance across aligned states.
What Trump is doing through this war is not simply escalating a conflict. He is compressing timelines.
Instead of allowing these systems to evolve gradually, he is applying pressure that forces decisions now. Each actor is being pushed to reveal its position, not in theory, but in practice.
TRUMP DELAYS XI MEETING AS IRAN CONFLICT LETS US STRONG-ARM CHINA’S OIL SUPPLY
That is why this war appears inconsistent on the surface. Escalation and negotiation are happening at the same time because the objective is not a clean military victory. It is a forced realignment of incentives across the entire region.
This marks a fundamental break from the model that defined U.S. policy for decades. The old approach managed instability and accepted unresolved tensions as the cost of avoiding larger conflicts. The current approach is attempting to resolve those tensions by making the cost of maintaining them too high.
Whether that works remains uncertain. What is clear is that the Middle East is no longer operating under the same rules.
This is not just a war with Iran. It is an attempt to change how the region functions and who gets to shape it going forward.
This article is a Fox News Digital exclusive from the author’s Substack series on different theaters President Trump is realigning with the Iran War.
Latest
States’ top cops gang up on Letitia James in crusade with potential nationwide consequences
FIRST ON FOX: Two dozen Republican state attorneys general are backing gun manufacturers in legal battles in New York, including in one case directly challenging New York Attorney General Letitia James’ role in attempting to expand liability against the manufacturers.
Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen led the states in filing amicus briefs Monday in lawsuits brought by Buffalo and Rochester, as well as one brought against James’ office, all of which center on New York’s effort to hold gun makers and sellers accountable for gun violence under a state public nuisance law. The AGs argued New York was infringing on a federal law that protects the firearms’ industry from liability and that the cases carry national implications.
“These cases go far beyond New York,” Knudsen told Fox News Digital in a phone interview. “This is not just a New York thing by any stretch of the imagination. … It affects all of us.” Knudsen said blue states and liberal gun control advocates have repeatedly attempted to “get around” federal law and “go after and bankrupt firearms companies.”
TRUMP ADMIN MAKES NEW CRIMINAL REFERRALS TO DOJ TARGETING NEW YORK AG LETITIA JAMES
The lawsuits focus on the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA), which is designed to shield gun makers and sellers from liability when their products are used in crimes. The Republican attorneys general argued in one of the amicus briefs that New York was attempting to sidestep that law with a “vague nuisance statute that specifically targets the firearms industry.”
Knudsen sharply criticized James, who is named in one of the cases, accusing her of pushing an activist agenda while disregarding the PLCAA.
“This is an attorney general who should know better,” Knudsen said. “We should be able to read case law and follow it, but she doesn’t seem to want to do that. Instead, she wants to be an activist. She wants to blame what I would say is probably the most legally regulated industry in America for the poor policies that she’s got going on in her own state.”
An amicus brief was filed with the Supreme Court in the case naming James, National Shooting Sports Foundation v. James, in which the attorneys general urged the high court to step in, warning that New York’s law could allow states across the country to circumvent the PLCAA by building liabilities for gun makers into state laws.
James has previously defended New York’s 2021 law as a public safety measure and hailed lower court rulings in the case as victories for “the rule of law.”
Knudsen emphasized the stakes of the case for Second Amendment advocates.
“We don’t have a Second Amendment in this country if we don’t have firearms manufacturers,” he said. “This is trying to kill the firearms manufacturing industry in this country one lawsuit at a time.”
A separate amicus brief was filed in district court opposing lawsuits brought by the cities of Buffalo and Rochester, which argued gun manufacturers failed to install sufficient guardrails to prevent gun crimes and that the cities were entitled to damages for those crimes.
The attorneys general countered that the gun industry is already heavily regulated and should not be held responsible for crimes in the cities that were carried out with guns that were made and sold legally.
REPUBLICANS PUSH CAMPUS CARRY LAWS IN NEARLY A DOZEN STATES AS COLLEGE SHOOTINGS REIGNITE DEBATE
The Montana attorney general also warned that New York’s law reaches beyond the state’s borders and could allow New York to impose liability on gun manufacturers who are based out of state, raising constitutional concerns about interstate commerce.
The Supreme Court could decide to intervene and address the New York law, in part because lower courts have been divided over how to interpret exceptions built into the PLCAA. Knudsen said he expects the justices to weigh in after they already addressed the law in Smith & Wesson Brands v. Mexico, a landmark case decided in favor of gun manufacturers last year.
In that case, Mexico had argued that under the PLCAA, several major gun companies could be held responsible for illegal firearms trafficking and the gun violence that resulted from it. The justices found 9-0 that Mexico did not present enough evidence to make that claim. But the high court’s ruling did not address state laws that serve to counter the PLCAA, such as the one in New York.
The Supreme Court brief focused on James was joined by 24 states: Montana, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
The district court brief was joined by 23 states: Montana, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
They mark the latest in a string of gun-related court interventions from Knudsen, who previously led red states in opposing Hawaii’s carry restrictions and a California magazine ban.
Fox News Digital reached out to Letitia James’ office for comment, as well as an attorney in the Buffalo and Rochester case.
Latest
New York traveler goes viral after backing ICE agents at airport
→ A New York traveler went viral after he backed ICE agents assisting TSA during the DHS shutdown, calling their presence “common sense.”
→ The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo enforced a stricter dress code after complaints and incidents at the event prompted limits on revealing attire.
→ A new study found several Southern and southwestern states ranked among the most stressed in 2026, based on work, financial and health factors.
→ A passenger said an airline forced her to buy a second seat under its “customer of size” policy, sparking a viral debate among travelers.
→ An eyebrow-raising video showed a baggage handler tossing guitar cases onto the tarmac at Los Angeles International Airport.
→ A Florida captain hauled in a nearly 500-pound swordfish after a five-hour fight, then shared the catch with much of his community.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR OUR LIFESTYLE NEWSLETTER
→ Officials uncovered remains believed to be linked to the musketeer who inspired “The Three Musketeers.”
→ Archaeologists recently uncovered a 5th-century Christian monastic site featuring paintings and an inscription.
LIKE WHAT YOU’RE READING? CLICK HERE FOR MORE TRAVEL NEWS
An aviation expert told Fox News Digital that passengers seated near exits or toward the rear of a plane may have better chances of survival in an emergency.
Latest
Dems who ran on affordability now face backlash as costs climb in NY, Virginia
“The water bill went up. The light bill went up. Now property taxes — what exactly are we doing here?”
This was one of many cries of worry and frustration voiced by New York City residents at a recent public meeting, where they said Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s policies since taking office have made life more expensive. The backlash is significant as Mamdani, like many Democrats who swept into office in November, campaigned explicitly on making life more affordable for constituents.
It’s not just in New York. Like Mamdani, Democratic Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger campaigned as a vocal critic of Republican economic policies. Now, she is facing voter outrage as costs in the Old Dominion continue to rise, and an economic climate that is increasingly seen as hostile to businesses drives away some of the biggest contributors to the tax base.
The trend underscores mounting political risk for Democrats, who will now need to demonstrate that they’re keeping their promises ahead of the midterms.
In New York City — the world’s financial capital and home to nearly 9 million — rising costs have national consequences.
Residents say Mamdani is backtracking on campaign promises to lower housing costs, pointing to a proposed property tax hike, rising water bills and higher electricity costs as signs that life is only getting more expensive.
With the city’s housing market already under strain, where demand far exceeds available supply, critics say Mamdani’s proposed rent freeze could discourage new construction, tighten inventory and push prices higher over time.
MAMDANI BUDGET POURS MILLIONS INTO DEI OFFICES AND CUTS 5,000 NYPD JOBS
“Economists — whether they are on the right or on the left — essentially are in universal agreement that when the government implements price controls in the rental market, you end up with housing shortages,” said E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation.
Antoni argued the city’s affordability challenges are largely policy-driven. “If we look at the ways in which New York City is more expensive than other places around the country, it is chiefly due to bad public policy that has imposed those costs,” he said, adding that “doubling down on those government failures will only make it worse.”
Edward Pinto, a senior fellow and co-director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute, said Mamdani’s proposal to freeze rents and increase property taxes in New York would be a “one-two wealth destruction punch.”
MAMDANI’S ESTATE TAX PLAN COULD DRIVE WEALTH OUT OF STATE, CRITICS WARN
“The rent freeze would drive multifamily property values down and the increase in property taxes would drive both multifamily and single-family values down. At the same time, the construction of new supply would contract and property upkeep would diminish as repairs are deferred and improvements are not made,” Pinto said.
For tenants and homeowners, those shifts could translate into fewer housing options and higher long-term costs.
When asked about Mamdani’s latest proposal — an estate tax plan that could pull middle-class families into a levy long aimed at the wealthy — Pinto warned it would deal a new blow to the city.
“This proposal would destroy NYC’s wealth in a different manner,” Pinto said. “This estate tax proposal will mistreat capital and result in the voluntary exodus of NYC residents and their wealth to places like Florida and Tennessee,” he added.
Despite the fact that Spanberger campaigned on affordability in Virginia, lawmakers from her party in Richmond are advancing a sweeping set of tax proposals that will raise costs for residents and businesses.
They propose more than 50 taxes targeting income, investment and everyday economic activity, from joining a gym to bringing pets to the groomers.
“This is part of a broader picture we’re seeing across blue states,” said Jack Salmon, a research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University focusing on tax and fiscal policy. “These states seem particularly determined to raise the tax burden on their highest-earning taxpayers.”
At the center are changes to Virginia’s tax structure. One bill would raise top income tax rates to as high as 10%, while another would impose a 3.8% tax on investment income.
CONSERVATIVE STATES SEE LOWER INFLATION THAN LIBERAL ONES NATIONWIDE, WHITE HOUSE DATA SHOWS
For some high earners, those levies could stack — pushing rates to 13.8% and moving Virginia closer to high-tax states.
Lawmakers are also considering a range of new taxes and fees across the economy, from higher sales taxes and levies on deliveries and rideshare services to taxes on everyday services like repairs, gym memberships, dry cleaning and dog grooming, along with new taxes on large employers.
Adding to the strain are rising energy costs. A Dominion Energy rate hike that took effect Jan. 1 reflects, in part, the costs of transitioning to offshore wind under the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) — a policy that could result in higher utility bills for customers.
Spanberger has also moved to rejoin the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a carbon pricing program her predecessor, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, exited — a move critics warn will increase the burden on household energy bills.
The mounting costs are already drawing concern from business leaders. Aerospace giant Boeing plans to move its headquarters from Virginia to Missouri, a shift expected to hit the state’s tax base and business climate.
Even if the immediate fiscal impact is limited, the loss of high-paying headquarters jobs and the spending they support is expected to erode tax revenues and create ripple effects across the local economy, from reduced consumer spending to weaker demand for services.
With costs rising and frustration mounting, voters will soon decide whether those promises still hold — or whether change is coming in November.
Mamdani and Spanberger’s office did not respond to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment.
-
Politics2 weeks agoPentagon targets Iran-linked militias in Iraq as Hegseth vows ‘we will finish this’ for fallen US troops -
Entertainment9 years ago9 Celebrities who have spoken out about being photoshopped
-
News2 weeks agoInside Joe Kent’s abrupt fall as GOP backlash grows over antisemitism accusations, FBI probe
-
News5 days agoTop Democrat Arrested By Capitol Police – Dragged Out In Handcuffs
-
Latest2 weeks agoHouse Democrats vote against deporting immigrants who harm police dogs, horses
-
News5 days agoALERT: Entire Election Just FLIPPED!
-
Latest7 days ago
Kentucky family says it turned down $26M from AI giant to keep farmland that ‘fed a nation’
-
Latest2 weeks agoPence urges Senate to ‘restore public confidence’ with nationwide voter ID law
